Friday, September 7, 2012

Leslie final days

Leslie does not look very healthy with the circulation center open across most of the western semicircle. The shear is increasing and moving closer to the storm from the west. 

The track hasn't changed much, and neither has the intensity forecast from NHC. I will go out on a limb here though. The shear tendency and lack of organized core will likely mark the demise of Leslie's chances to re-intensify. 

An earlier visible satellite image from Leslie shows arc clouds in wavelets rounding the northwest quadrant of the storm. Likely caused by gravity waves emulating from looks like a mid level vorticity north of the low level center. These could help the scouring out of the environment across the western edge. To show this and because I'm off after a long set of long shifts, I thought I'd have a little fun and make a video of the visible images. Testing out the Stupeflix application. 
As for the Gulf of Mexico and the not very interesting mess there. Down to 20% chance for development but the circulation is looking weak much less that the convection is totally displaced. 

No comments:

Post a Comment