Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Good evening,

A hurricane hunter aircraft found winds of 45 knots in Ophelia this afternoon. The thing is that the trough off the eastern United States to the northwest of the storm is shearing Ophelia from the south southwest. This is clearly seen in the animated gif attached. This shear is also the steering mechanism for the track guidance which is consistently taking the storm into the central Atlantic east of Bermuda.

Below is the track guidance, image from CIMSS

No worries for the US.
Now, for some of you in Florida there is a cool front getting ready to move near the Peninsula by Friday
night that will end up stalled near the Florida Keys by Sunday night.
Much drier air is in store with lows in the mid 40s in north Florida, in the middle to low 60s down to central Florida and the southwest coast, and interior south Florida, with middle 70s southeast and the Keys.

A couple of things are happening that may be good for the rest of the hurricane season as well.
The southern branch of the jet stream has shown up a bit early across the central Gulf of Mexico. While a very strong ridge of high pressure will build in over the deep south with the gradient flow dipping south over the Florida Straits. These are pattern shifts we expect to see in mid October or a little later that indicate the beginning oof the end. If this pattern holds (knock on my hea...I mean wood), there may be little to look forward to as far as tropical cyclones along the Gulf Coast for the remainder of this season. There still is a threat that if a system spins up on a tail end of a front over the western Gulf or Caribbean that we may see a storm but I'd rather be optimistic.

That's all for tonight,

Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Well the storm that actually looks like something tropical is once again Ophelia, (fig. 1). There is not much to say about the system other than the circulation looks much better than Philippe, (fig. 2).
Still the organization is quite weak within Ophelia, while Philippe has a totally exposed circulation with little hope of evolving back into a significant system. Both tracks are taking these storms out to sea with Ophelia making a minimal impact on the Leeward Islands in the form of heavy rainfall.

The official track from the National Hurricane Center,, is in white, while assorted forecast tracks are displayed you can see the official track is left of the model tracks with the furthest track well northeast of Puerto Rico. A fish storm in any form is a beneficial storm for the environmental system.

As for Philippe, well one can see for themselves. When you can see the center without any convection it spells doom for any storm.


Sunday, September 25, 2011

NHC has issued the last advisory on Ophelia. The newest Tropical Storm is named Philippe and has a
pretty good ASCAT satellite pass near by that shows a good circulation. Winds are satellite derived near 60 mph but the storm is already moving northwest 10 to 15 mph. The model tracks are closely clustered and turn
the storm north into the central Atlantic by day three which will make this a "fish storm". Do not expect to have to write much more on Philippe.


Friday, September 23, 2011

Good evening,

Ophelia is still struggling with a strongly sheared environment even though it looks like convection is beginning to settle in closer to the center. The two images included are of the current shear and the shear tendency. Currently there is 20 to 40 knots of shear aloft under cutting the outflow and blowing the tops off any convection to the northeast of the center.

The shear tendency is on the increase as well which leads me to believe there is little hope for Ophelia to survive much longer. The latest aircraft RECON show 32 knots flight level winds which is a much weaker system than yesterday.

Images are from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin and the official authority for hurricane forecasts, warnings and coordination of watches is the National Hurricane Center.

Thursday, September 22, 2011

The latest on Ophelia which is not looking good at all.
A combination of IR satellite and track guidance from CIMSS shows that the storm convection is totally sheared off to the northeast.

The current shearing image:

And the forecast tracks from the National Hurricane Center:

I really don't have much more to say as there isn't much left. :-)


Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Latest on Ophelia from NHC with graphics from CIMSS U-WISC.
Ophelia looks better tonight but the southwesterly shear is still quite potent. The center of Ophelia is showing on the southern edge of the central dense overcast...CDO...but there is the appearance of transverse banding from east counter clockwise to the south indicating a nice mid level outflow in these quadrants. Have attached a track forecast graphic from CIMSS which shows a nicely clustered track forecast although the intensity guidance is all over the place. Another run or two will allow a better handle on intensity but my thinking is that the storm will peak just below category one intensity.
Ophelia is stuck on the southern edge of the Atlantic ridge of high pressure which will keep the storm moving west near 15 mph for the next few days before the trough exiting the eastern coastal states picks up the steering flow for the system and pushes the ridge back into the central Atlantic.

The latest track guidance graphic from CIMSS.

Latest unenhanced infrared satellite image from NHC.

Good morning all,
If you would like to follow and post comments or questions use the
Google Friend Connect gadget, This will use your yahoo, hotmail,
or other address to connect saving you from joining Google if you
do not want to.

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has begun advisories on Tropical Storm Ophelia located in the central Atlantic, about 1585 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands. Maximum winds are about 40 mph and the system is moving west near 10 mph. The slow movement of Ophelia has been the catalyst for the contraction of the broad are of low pressure into a better low level circulation center. The storm is experiencing some westerly shear which will help keep intensification to a minimum if it persist. The model guidance is not very bullish on Ophelia and keeps the system as a tropical storm throughout it life cycle. The following graphic is the latest forecast track for Ophelia from NHC.

Although the model guidance and phase diagrams are keeping a cap on the intensity forecast, it is early in the forecast cycle. The early runs on a system may have some fluctuations in both track and intensity. I would not jump on any changes to the forecast during the next 24 hours they are remarkably different. The initial runs that have a true center fix and a good circulation to work with will be in the morning and even then it takes a few runs to get the runs settled in to a consistent forecast.

When they become available I will update with the latest model dissemination and a new discussion. My thinking is that Ophelia has definitely become a tropical storm, the Dvorak classifications are good and the storm actually looks pretty decent. The loop is much better.

Remember to make comments or ask questions you will need to follow this blog or email me.


Sunday, September 18, 2011

Summer 2011 Days Above 100 Degrees

It has been a very hot year for the Southwest and Texas. Also a memorable year pertaining top fires across the southern United States.
So you know; I will talk about other significant weather going on around the country
as I get going with this. For now if you don't see anything, its good news.


Good morning all,
I will try delivering tropical information across the blog-o-sphere.
We will see how this works as I will be able to issue short bursts of information
as I can without sitting down for an entire message. Also you should be able to
post comments and questions right away.
This is a test and I will refine this as I get better at it.