Although the model guidance and phase diagrams are keeping a cap on the intensity forecast, it is early in the forecast cycle. The early runs on a system may have some fluctuations in both track and intensity. I would not jump on any changes to the forecast during the next 24 hours they are remarkably different. The initial runs that have a true center fix and a good circulation to work with will be in the morning and even then it takes a few runs to get the runs settled in to a consistent forecast.
When they become available I will update with the latest model dissemination and a new discussion. My thinking is that Ophelia has definitely become a tropical storm, the Dvorak classifications are good and the storm actually looks pretty decent. The loop is much better.
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