Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Latest on Ophelia from NHC with graphics from CIMSS U-WISC.
Ophelia looks better tonight but the southwesterly shear is still quite potent. The center of Ophelia is showing on the southern edge of the central dense overcast...CDO...but there is the appearance of transverse banding from east counter clockwise to the south indicating a nice mid level outflow in these quadrants. Have attached a track forecast graphic from CIMSS which shows a nicely clustered track forecast although the intensity guidance is all over the place. Another run or two will allow a better handle on intensity but my thinking is that the storm will peak just below category one intensity.
Ophelia is stuck on the southern edge of the Atlantic ridge of high pressure which will keep the storm moving west near 15 mph for the next few days before the trough exiting the eastern coastal states picks up the steering flow for the system and pushes the ridge back into the central Atlantic.

The latest track guidance graphic from CIMSS.

Latest unenhanced infrared satellite image from NHC.

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