tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-89827196951703246752024-03-12T22:26:06.075-07:00Bill's Weather BlogMany things weather related mainly focusing on tropical weather in the Atlantic BasinBills Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14957477832288295946noreply@blogger.comBlogger63125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8982719695170324675.post-65515781890243784112013-07-07T23:51:00.002-07:002013-07-07T23:51:38.427-07:00<h2 style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>New Website and Tropical Storm Chantal</i></span></h2>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i><br /></i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I will be issuing updates on my web site in the future. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Go to <a href="http://www.billcottrill.com/">www.billcottrill.com</a> for updates on troipcal development and forecasts. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">You may leave me a message there by email or email me directly at billycott@gmail.com</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I think this will be a much cleaner way for me to get the message out to you and others, while more efficient for me due to my obnoxious schedule. :-)</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Oh yeah...Get your hurricane kit ready now! Before you wish you had later. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Cheers, </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Bill</span></div>
Bills Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14957477832288295946noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8982719695170324675.post-21903274119053399282012-10-26T18:37:00.001-07:002012-10-26T18:37:10.438-07:00Sandy becoming extra tropical<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Sandy is quickly transforming into a baroclinic system as the storm expands. The forecast gets interesting now and there is a lot of conjecture and hype with the storm and what is going to occur. The way to avoid the impending panic from the media is to turn the channel. Turn on your computer and go to <a href="http://weather.gov/">weather.gov</a> then click on your location on the map. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The talk from the forecast offices is calm and they know the problems locally better than most others because these offices have been around a long time and seen many of these transitional storms move up the US coastline. With this in mind I will give you some observations that may be useful.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The latest reconnaissance mission through the storm has found only 40 knots near the center but there are flight level winds surrounding the broad circulation nearing 50 to 55 knots. </span><br />
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<pre style="font-size: 12px;">000
URNT12 KWBC 270029
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012
A. 26/23:52:49Z
B. 27 deg 25 min N
077 deg 14 min W
C. NA
<span style="background-color: yellow;">D. 40 kt</span>
E. 132 deg 79 nm
F. 234 deg 57 kt
G. 132 deg 69 nm
H. 971 mb
I. 12 C / 3659 m
J. 13 C / 3660 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / NA
O. 1 / 6 nm
P. NOAA2 1218A SANDY OB 21
STRONG BANDING NW
<span style="background-color: yellow;">MAX FL WIND 57 KT SE QUAD 23:35:53Z</span>
<span style="background-color: yellow;">MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 52 KT NW QUAD 00:07:32Z</span>
MAX FL TEMP 15 C 128 / 29 NM FROM FL CNTR
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The strong banding features are associated with the large circulation expanding and transitioning to a baroclinic low. When a tropical system transitions into an extra tropical low it implies the poleward motion of the cyclone displaced from the low level circulation and the primary energy source is the baroclinic, or a change in temperature and pressure rather than the pressure and release of latent heat release of condensation due to rising warm moist air off the surface. (fig 1)</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEilQIo_5UEOiNuBRYvqwh_7SffIZufyNnrvF2wkWClzwAYxME5gV5k0pU3HHGW1puCaRGaxm_hhV8RvkcFnKStE-n2_saORRGLD_7c4krlETme8Sb6pDdSeaiuJvVCVaOoek-kJimffZdBT/s1600/baroclinic_low.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="317" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEilQIo_5UEOiNuBRYvqwh_7SffIZufyNnrvF2wkWClzwAYxME5gV5k0pU3HHGW1puCaRGaxm_hhV8RvkcFnKStE-n2_saORRGLD_7c4krlETme8Sb6pDdSeaiuJvVCVaOoek-kJimffZdBT/s400/baroclinic_low.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">If you live along the eastern seaboard of the United States the main issue is for the coastal communities for seas, some coastal flooding especially those very low lying areas, and for rainfall from the storm which may be significant. I can only say that "IF" the model guidance is correct this could be a very large player in the forecast for the weekend. That it is the weekend that the timing could be much worse and involve commuters to work. The storm is coinciding with the astronomical high tide due to the fall tide maximum and a full moon which will add to the coastal flooding. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">My advise is to be prepared, don't panic because your been here before either in hurricanes or nor'easters. Be sure to keep your weather radio handy and get supplies early. Power outages may occur, there could be some flash flooding in those areas prone to it. The best plan is to have a plan and be ready to implement it!</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Let me know if and what impacts you receive from the storm. Be Safe</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">BC</span>Bills Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14957477832288295946noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8982719695170324675.post-89765948865485598132012-10-23T22:13:00.002-07:002012-10-23T22:13:18.607-07:00TS Sandy<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Tropical Storm Sandy is in the Caribbean just south of Jamaica at 11 pm EDT on 10.23.12.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This would put the center about 715 miles south southeast of Key West and it is moving north northeast near 8 mph. The maximum sustained winds are 50 knots but Hurricane Hunter Aircraft have measured 60 knots by dropsonde during a recent pass through the storm.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The structure of Sandy is troubling with respect to the forecast track and intensity. </span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEioGWjyzHhqFbuhOXV3m-9PO4-i94dnDEl4_EgjchfGcuSfxX_lB344XGziYirn7yetW1So-AMcZ-N_Oos6kHuLAuqP6XR_FRizfCl-_78mDJpuDOYjm91l5-JRs8Z0u2kHgEyqFmY6jYMy/s1600/TS_Sandy_shear_sat.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEioGWjyzHhqFbuhOXV3m-9PO4-i94dnDEl4_EgjchfGcuSfxX_lB344XGziYirn7yetW1So-AMcZ-N_Oos6kHuLAuqP6XR_FRizfCl-_78mDJpuDOYjm91l5-JRs8Z0u2kHgEyqFmY6jYMy/s400/TS_Sandy_shear_sat.gif" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Shear(yellow), Shear vectors(white), and vis/wv satellite via CIMSS</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The shear vectors are obviously tilting the storm to the east and northeast with the magnitude of the shear at 60 knots over the Bahamas...and near 20 knots across the center fix of the storm. All the shear is out of the southwest. The satellite image shows the slant of the system and a closer look with IR satellite shows the western semicircle of the storm is quite dry and pushing a dry slot into the circulation itself. see below</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5M_MLgl1OVj4ic5czCFmQkelO4pc6IuQIRvl_plngMYCk3cml4qgK0X4KLTASad4Ydp4E-6XkPxT-2DKf_9ew31ylVdigEFOsF7I9o096m85f2pOkCnqH_KSGwP5RjI5JVWZowkbFNC_z/s1600/IR_shear_impacts.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5M_MLgl1OVj4ic5czCFmQkelO4pc6IuQIRvl_plngMYCk3cml4qgK0X4KLTASad4Ydp4E-6XkPxT-2DKf_9ew31ylVdigEFOsF7I9o096m85f2pOkCnqH_KSGwP5RjI5JVWZowkbFNC_z/s400/IR_shear_impacts.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The latest advisory has the fix further to the east and is the reason for the bend in the track to the east initially. My thinking is this is a trend that will continue for several reasons. First the shear is tilting the storm, this is causing the wind field to expand which is indicating a system that is in transition from tropical to post or extra tropical. Then the culprit for the transition is the upper level low over the eastern Gulf of Mexico which is also helping to steer Sandy, while pulling dry air aloft into the circulation. Finally the last consensus model runs all have a easterly trend to the tracks. see next image</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgma3uGRe-lURLCI-ETmUYnQdHaLw9KEq7M4UOWb5TFoAd0w3kNXkzuKPjuEgGixGV7AdX6VZjDkiRNP9TKxa1TuZFe8Ot5JMvujD8cpNQbGwV2axgMTWPA4KQ0Ygmn_s9dgfCAaxCxI_e8/s1600/Consensus.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgma3uGRe-lURLCI-ETmUYnQdHaLw9KEq7M4UOWb5TFoAd0w3kNXkzuKPjuEgGixGV7AdX6VZjDkiRNP9TKxa1TuZFe8Ot5JMvujD8cpNQbGwV2axgMTWPA4KQ0Ygmn_s9dgfCAaxCxI_e8/s400/Consensus.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">We find the tracks are east of the official beginning as the storm crosses eastern Cuba. In almost all cases it has been shown that if the consensus moves in a certain direction the tracks will follow. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOB-fzQ4SWs81E7BXdJyoeKPKP9xv6fsZDmCD4RI-62X63s9Og3m7rHRu0T29XbgrvWNpFEEI6phIEEmMODHYQwhWQ9n4-zPC5f458epqxLcwEp4HdFVNqGTdciC-gSrSm0PymrRlaY0Pq/s1600/Consensus_large.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOB-fzQ4SWs81E7BXdJyoeKPKP9xv6fsZDmCD4RI-62X63s9Og3m7rHRu0T29XbgrvWNpFEEI6phIEEmMODHYQwhWQ9n4-zPC5f458epqxLcwEp4HdFVNqGTdciC-gSrSm0PymrRlaY0Pq/s400/Consensus_large.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As for intensity we will have to wait but would expect that category two will be the maximum that the storm is advertised from NHC but with the expanding wind field, most of the winds should remain aloft and not mix down to the surface. Jamaica will give us a good idea of the energy at the surface as will Cuba. Then the next stop on the Sandy train after the Bahamas will Bermuda but the forward speed should less the duration of impacts no matter what the intensity. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">If you're heading to Key West its going to be windy but this will not stop the debauchery on Duval Street. :-)</span>Bills Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14957477832288295946noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8982719695170324675.post-67370254817665883782012-10-16T08:00:00.003-07:002012-10-16T08:00:49.464-07:00Rafael fighting to the last<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Rafael is working against the shear as much as it can. We can see the sheared storm environment with the bulk of the cloud off to the north and east of the center. </span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghmkb3MMcW2iP9dIA5Xn8WnPLMEJScJuR5vE2JPisk15Wrn2OSoTZvPUt9UrJlETdRbbu6nmce2WijLgwLqi-oBhcu4lCmdWYRkXKGsE-iEn9luaanCvCvXjEgViub5LTiDAkZOiM7oUCl/s1600/Forecast.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghmkb3MMcW2iP9dIA5Xn8WnPLMEJScJuR5vE2JPisk15Wrn2OSoTZvPUt9UrJlETdRbbu6nmce2WijLgwLqi-oBhcu4lCmdWYRkXKGsE-iEn9luaanCvCvXjEgViub5LTiDAkZOiM7oUCl/s400/Forecast.gif" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Courtesy of CIMSS</span> </td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The storm is holding on by the skin of its teeth and from ship observations we see the extent of the wind field is limited to the near storm environment. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPviAK8gMF5E2IytI-8Bdev7k-HPAhN3IMzgQI3TN6I1CjNpmc4havC2SreG4_mvA6CFycXr8rJ8Vb1MbUqmFXOuVZYwUtWGxf3Az6IEoa7jbn_mNv4At3WqaqlkBfCuO0AW6GRXi-Y-ZU/s1600/Rafael_track_surface_obs.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPviAK8gMF5E2IytI-8Bdev7k-HPAhN3IMzgQI3TN6I1CjNpmc4havC2SreG4_mvA6CFycXr8rJ8Vb1MbUqmFXOuVZYwUtWGxf3Az6IEoa7jbn_mNv4At3WqaqlkBfCuO0AW6GRXi-Y-ZU/s400/Rafael_track_surface_obs.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A look at wind vectors and then vorticity we can see the trough moving across the western Atlantic which is the catalyst for pushing Rafael east of Bermuda. The image below shows the high shear surrounding the storm.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFPbOImxPw5WAfVS0YOxaP32mZsrg3gxBTzQgJ4eGf3Zhony276OQayA6X7J8ynhvZVtW2y9-O1yM6DkcoKy9Povyy_yRlPtgfihzxm5qwbZ-psbVn0ddZl7jBr9ovWX5l7Mp4qiup4jwJ/s1600/shear_flow_vectors.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="301" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFPbOImxPw5WAfVS0YOxaP32mZsrg3gxBTzQgJ4eGf3Zhony276OQayA6X7J8ynhvZVtW2y9-O1yM6DkcoKy9Povyy_yRlPtgfihzxm5qwbZ-psbVn0ddZl7jBr9ovWX5l7Mp4qiup4jwJ/s400/shear_flow_vectors.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The highlighted areas in the final image indicate 200 mb vorticity which is the trough over the western Atlantic and ultimately what will pick up Rafael and begin the rapid exit of the storm to the northeast of Bermuda. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWF15xgiqJni2AHLesJ5KwdRVSW4ajuQRj-xX28lO-nYV1DwdMMU_geyyFmr7auD1Fa_FNa0hjEYnOyL7R3oCpMFJBAviyXELsYFtN5I0z4Yl4bH6aSoRgUx8cLP-mHumuv8lUpxIEVGYt/s1600/Vorticity_200.GIF" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="282" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWF15xgiqJni2AHLesJ5KwdRVSW4ajuQRj-xX28lO-nYV1DwdMMU_geyyFmr7auD1Fa_FNa0hjEYnOyL7R3oCpMFJBAviyXELsYFtN5I0z4Yl4bH6aSoRgUx8cLP-mHumuv8lUpxIEVGYt/s400/Vorticity_200.GIF" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Obviously there will be some higher winds across Bermuda but the more important issue will be wind waves and swell from the time Rafael has spent over the open waters. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>Bills Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14957477832288295946noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8982719695170324675.post-70995241772418789782012-10-12T23:10:00.002-07:002012-10-12T23:10:43.939-07:00Rafael <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Rafael has been initiated. I will hold off on the obvious and let those of you that know me interpret the facts.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYUTNGdXvJwkDWJb96rZ61jY6bk080L9c0NIfF79rNNq5unnyglsllDHvtvRCfpnIGu66N_vorxIteAkKFaaHX3J7MObCdSwaHRJgHms_7rVy_xjoCB3fuUGxFrcJdnlbmGyHWUZ3CSQif/s1600/Rafael_shear.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYUTNGdXvJwkDWJb96rZ61jY6bk080L9c0NIfF79rNNq5unnyglsllDHvtvRCfpnIGu66N_vorxIteAkKFaaHX3J7MObCdSwaHRJgHms_7rVy_xjoCB3fuUGxFrcJdnlbmGyHWUZ3CSQif/s400/Rafael_shear.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">50 knots of shear with a immense ridge building off the Eastern Seaboard which will only add to the shearing environment.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheHtFrIr0rwmYwv03M98uttdfTu6Aowyjtf3_cnJZXIXiZJGA8iF1yBUVC1uc4zc6Job08r8f35cbsT_OQTjfDm04k0ASHMV5gVtWJLLpUuwPPw7eJNIeOHsOQL2T_InLO0zMk1w4s_oh1/s1600/Rafael_track.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheHtFrIr0rwmYwv03M98uttdfTu6Aowyjtf3_cnJZXIXiZJGA8iF1yBUVC1uc4zc6Job08r8f35cbsT_OQTjfDm04k0ASHMV5gVtWJLLpUuwPPw7eJNIeOHsOQL2T_InLO0zMk1w4s_oh1/s400/Rafael_track.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> The track if Rafael holds on keeps the storm heading more north and if you notice the distance between the forecast points, it really speeds up as it get caught up in the trough. This should keep the impacts to Bermuda minimal in both intensity and duration. Winds should be gradually increasing with the trough closing in and may get a little squally Monday night. Not nearly as bad as a strong front dropping out of a Nor'easter.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">BC </span>Bills Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14957477832288295946noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8982719695170324675.post-76202461827628010762012-10-12T08:41:00.000-07:002012-10-12T08:41:06.159-07:00Patty and Invest 98L<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Good morning everyone,</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Just a few notes of the tropics with the last gasp from Patty, and a open wave that may be named Rafael. Patty is being absorbed by a trough sitting across the Bahamas and will likely be out of the picture this evening. The structure of Patty is already non tropical with very little indication of a closed circulation at the surface. </span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNxgTUCpT_nY1ICCeY0E42dM9AFFfMOKbRnbByx8e3HygytUfnWFkgdEKYugcEyOCKOOltFvNJCBpdocBqptdA-sJ8wne10j4q6BPBV19XlezZjS5K6wCNHpPxW5PtGBrk9ujo9k2xc4yD/s1600/Sat_interrogation_10.12.21.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNxgTUCpT_nY1ICCeY0E42dM9AFFfMOKbRnbByx8e3HygytUfnWFkgdEKYugcEyOCKOOltFvNJCBpdocBqptdA-sJ8wne10j4q6BPBV19XlezZjS5K6wCNHpPxW5PtGBrk9ujo9k2xc4yD/s400/Sat_interrogation_10.12.21.gif" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Thanks to CIMSS for image</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">With this said lets focus on Invest 98L. 98L is indicated on the above image by the I over the Windward Islands. A recent OSACT pass has a very good representation of the environment around the area. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVrOHiLT-7tv3tYy7bR8cP5hkLWb5FKSt611wB0KLXbjGzhOPONk4_b4QWUd78MVvP83REzkhkBj5w48RW0dBhojTFsb1Pps9Dms4NZaiO04XoFmpS2oDoYL3uParX9eiAxgUTN7iMp086/s1600/Patty_invest98l_OSCAT.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVrOHiLT-7tv3tYy7bR8cP5hkLWb5FKSt611wB0KLXbjGzhOPONk4_b4QWUd78MVvP83REzkhkBj5w48RW0dBhojTFsb1Pps9Dms4NZaiO04XoFmpS2oDoYL3uParX9eiAxgUTN7iMp086/s400/Patty_invest98l_OSCAT.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> This circulation has a couple of problems least of which is the interaction with the northern coast of Venezuela that is inhibiting the circulation on the southern semicircle of the system. The only storms in recent history that I can remember surviving this interaction were Dennis and Emily in 2005. The shear across the area north and west of 98L is extremely hostile for development but there is ample deep convection over the Windwards near Barbados that warrent at least keeping an eye on the area. Forecast models are consistently developing a hurricane but the track is almost due north. The other problem is that the ridge over the southeast will offer plenty shear to the west which is the likely reason for the track north. The only issue for this system which may be named Rafael, is Bermuda. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The following images show the shear then the shear tendency over the area. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3YQI6QG1vRlblV3gsfMo2-s8Hl2o6yxqivEek40t-PUoYr7JAdvXfvqbU9Y8_GT4_Rod6LeojEd_Ur5YcmYFqV5nUizxHi2msO0FYCeoM_HDIHiwpf_jS1HICdcwgvqqJ-uZ2GXUaOEYq/s1600/Patty_I98L_shear.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3YQI6QG1vRlblV3gsfMo2-s8Hl2o6yxqivEek40t-PUoYr7JAdvXfvqbU9Y8_GT4_Rod6LeojEd_Ur5YcmYFqV5nUizxHi2msO0FYCeoM_HDIHiwpf_jS1HICdcwgvqqJ-uZ2GXUaOEYq/s400/Patty_I98L_shear.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6GyR8TgW-l0L3DUWTwHPcl6N3ca41dPtX44gZNfKaBE6x-ZDgNsCCh7LqTcgmbhn1sMDaMSsr64QzRBGPlWyHjuSMm7p4pGY9mycM8HPSEcSAdd2EBdyukrSxMqe5r8WRWqpEqfkpM50o/s1600/Shear_tendency.GIF" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="282" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6GyR8TgW-l0L3DUWTwHPcl6N3ca41dPtX44gZNfKaBE6x-ZDgNsCCh7LqTcgmbhn1sMDaMSsr64QzRBGPlWyHjuSMm7p4pGY9mycM8HPSEcSAdd2EBdyukrSxMqe5r8WRWqpEqfkpM50o/s400/Shear_tendency.GIF" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The season isn't over yet. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">BC</span>Bills Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14957477832288295946noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8982719695170324675.post-19850531951690344962012-09-07T13:50:00.002-07:002012-09-07T13:50:24.223-07:00Leslie final days<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Leslie does not look very healthy with the circulation center open across most of the western semicircle. The shear is increasing and moving closer to the storm from the west. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_7OxXinLJ6Vo4tuKgjV3sVAKxKuxcBcYJyITSAMR1OjcKVaZhjr67-RUHGFcZfn9_MPY2r_MZKm32qf0LXYEUVesW-PQRdkzPDH_lXr3yO48IoJQMr-A6kxDzwzZk2SLfAd00LLSXeOPg/s1600/IR_Leslie_breakingup.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_7OxXinLJ6Vo4tuKgjV3sVAKxKuxcBcYJyITSAMR1OjcKVaZhjr67-RUHGFcZfn9_MPY2r_MZKm32qf0LXYEUVesW-PQRdkzPDH_lXr3yO48IoJQMr-A6kxDzwzZk2SLfAd00LLSXeOPg/s400/IR_Leslie_breakingup.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgg_f4QtCuddleRwDPjyyjMo_HYmVZaIU2He0lMH8aTbVI4JAS5nUDbpmsRTV74gxMD9sOBtdTbeI6t-7X4sXf6fw1Qb72n0tGsj5dZngZctdb_BGArzgatJcGNC7Z9ow-LIeg6d-g1v4fX/s1600/Leslie_shear.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgg_f4QtCuddleRwDPjyyjMo_HYmVZaIU2He0lMH8aTbVI4JAS5nUDbpmsRTV74gxMD9sOBtdTbeI6t-7X4sXf6fw1Qb72n0tGsj5dZngZctdb_BGArzgatJcGNC7Z9ow-LIeg6d-g1v4fX/s400/Leslie_shear.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The track hasn't changed much, and neither has the intensity forecast from <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/" target="_blank">NHC</a>. I will go out on a limb here though. The shear tendency and lack of organized core will likely mark the demise of Leslie's chances to re-intensify. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyDHTx8j1XZCshf8kVp3Zbt9pQBcU67oaU-0IpjeheA0Z4GdFuirr3dAhxAnYbuOsuw_4dzjnnPBhMJu9t4Zki-f4HTQ5RO8GMLj-8viltj0AMiuRcOVyejcuY3-5sL3bpivIglAVgGXZv/s1600/Shear_tendency.GIF" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="282" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyDHTx8j1XZCshf8kVp3Zbt9pQBcU67oaU-0IpjeheA0Z4GdFuirr3dAhxAnYbuOsuw_4dzjnnPBhMJu9t4Zki-f4HTQ5RO8GMLj-8viltj0AMiuRcOVyejcuY3-5sL3bpivIglAVgGXZv/s400/Shear_tendency.GIF" width="400" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheS8KH6P5NmPRAJYpiCRKTECsAkTDWDq_N5wdXAOeEcppnsVmXzZ7HK3c1l59Fd9VF4Jazm1afQODO88SrgJGmWfFNNQ44O6HkKiCMXzfIQ43bbRcYHSTcFwU04PN28WMljlKDOsEiEMDx/s1600/Leslie_track.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheS8KH6P5NmPRAJYpiCRKTECsAkTDWDq_N5wdXAOeEcppnsVmXzZ7HK3c1l59Fd9VF4Jazm1afQODO88SrgJGmWfFNNQ44O6HkKiCMXzfIQ43bbRcYHSTcFwU04PN28WMljlKDOsEiEMDx/s400/Leslie_track.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">An earlier visible satellite image from Leslie shows arc clouds in wavelets rounding the northwest quadrant of the storm. Likely caused by gravity waves emulating from looks like a mid level vorticity north of the low level center. These could help the scouring out of the environment across the western edge. To show this and because I'm off after a long set of long shifts, I thought I'd have a little fun and make a <a href="http://studio.stupeflix.com/v/BMXnXNb83I/" target="_blank">video of the visible images</a>. Testing out the Stupeflix application. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As for the Gulf of Mexico and the not very interesting mess there. Down to 20% chance for development but the circulation is looking weak much less that the convection is totally displaced. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjl5IWllz2HgF-dQo9DymgGxT7u7Ihf6qD519dMJwZNTXr8Y22Vy9reStGbkITFGEjvBvl_LcVwOEbH4znZq_57XwoxDiGLLAjq6JnladYhBZR27brSxBS2RlTWdLAY-eq1ddyQPe1WeByg/s1600/Gulf_mess.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjl5IWllz2HgF-dQo9DymgGxT7u7Ihf6qD519dMJwZNTXr8Y22Vy9reStGbkITFGEjvBvl_LcVwOEbH4znZq_57XwoxDiGLLAjq6JnladYhBZR27brSxBS2RlTWdLAY-eq1ddyQPe1WeByg/s400/Gulf_mess.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>Bills Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14957477832288295946noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8982719695170324675.post-8508814745556940302012-09-06T08:23:00.002-07:002012-09-06T16:51:57.543-07:00Track for Leslie behaves well. Updated<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The forecast track this evening is more to the east again:</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhaoMZNcn88ek-j1-1w1LH6Vf83IqkE5hy_fRSvmkopUcmig-XVfEavVWx6VTgwb5OsDWNl7IItklD-J2jdxqtl2TeYyCC1UquUnATdtfY1szhWoXJgFQoE7MHZfWHXr4mY1iDhQzO7Y4Y/s1600/Leslie_evening_forecast.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhaoMZNcn88ek-j1-1w1LH6Vf83IqkE5hy_fRSvmkopUcmig-XVfEavVWx6VTgwb5OsDWNl7IItklD-J2jdxqtl2TeYyCC1UquUnATdtfY1szhWoXJgFQoE7MHZfWHXr4mY1iDhQzO7Y4Y/s400/Leslie_evening_forecast.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg13OukmL5UpGO3NI3oeHDe7xTlRcf-CVARb_p2Te04r8pxUa1c3-kwCZ1PGuWHdSEXnqoFAAhua5Bv5A7sp965ebmi6T3W6-6F9lKjs8vOulQemEabQ5-bW6tlWD5Cr5tVgfVXEdl4NKNF/s1600/NHC_official_track.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg13OukmL5UpGO3NI3oeHDe7xTlRcf-CVARb_p2Te04r8pxUa1c3-kwCZ1PGuWHdSEXnqoFAAhua5Bv5A7sp965ebmi6T3W6-6F9lKjs8vOulQemEabQ5-bW6tlWD5Cr5tVgfVXEdl4NKNF/s400/NHC_official_track.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The latest track forecast continues the eastward shift due to the trough over New England picking up the upper level low east of the FL/GA coast. This low will slowly move northeast while blocking the path of Leslie, and moving the path to the east. A loop of the water vapor imagery clearly shows the trough moving the upper low. </span><a href="http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html">http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html</a><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Will keep this post short but it is good news for Bermuda.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Here is what the storm looks like...</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj11TPfLPRpBFJnH4qn0Ghmflrkfj8aBT9dZgWuLoWx0FmB7WJRvuOYlOP7Qhqn1s7h7TxDbsjwGkUP-42ABKdq_Ku5O7pVivIabtOy6TA2IsmAf4dpmjoN7fNlAJfk5Z1Kzs4RBdTgvml4/s1600/Leslie_tilt.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj11TPfLPRpBFJnH4qn0Ghmflrkfj8aBT9dZgWuLoWx0FmB7WJRvuOYlOP7Qhqn1s7h7TxDbsjwGkUP-42ABKdq_Ku5O7pVivIabtOy6TA2IsmAf4dpmjoN7fNlAJfk5Z1Kzs4RBdTgvml4/s400/Leslie_tilt.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">You'll notice the bulk of the vigorous convection on the northern and eastern quadrants of the storm. The last graphic will show the forecast track of the storm.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGoBZivtO1lNPjN37JV5wvGHXCVcd_AMknRNeTa5p6RPSMVGepG0RT-TRBStauEMC_BKU619IBhciVV6rw8gZgC5QjuKlG95E_z1yzH8qqDKhLiaCVjhgyYqfYzoS1_8mhCM6uSonvLhE-/s1600/Leslie_track+_change.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGoBZivtO1lNPjN37JV5wvGHXCVcd_AMknRNeTa5p6RPSMVGepG0RT-TRBStauEMC_BKU619IBhciVV6rw8gZgC5QjuKlG95E_z1yzH8qqDKhLiaCVjhgyYqfYzoS1_8mhCM6uSonvLhE-/s400/Leslie_track+_change.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
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Bills Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14957477832288295946noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8982719695170324675.post-19173604799802411892012-09-05T15:08:00.002-07:002012-09-05T15:08:15.391-07:00Leslie future track is further east<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/" target="_blank">National Hurricane Center NHC</a> has upgraded Leslie to hurricane status this afternoon. From the satellite presentation and <a href="http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/datasets/OSCATData.php/" target="_blank">Oceansat-2</a> winds I think this is a prudent assesment of the strength in the core of Leslie. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPEMrIWMuqzgZRfdvCXKyo20fVuZoFpL1_TVXtsRwSQbQgw0ZDAW8OgGUIjMXFlLSfblTxY2-ruAUNMXGpraHwGeTnlLwhUHuZoPEoqd1jaZ1yxJMhM6CueSw2WgOtjqitOAB1rv583QnB/s1600/Oceansat_Leslie.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPEMrIWMuqzgZRfdvCXKyo20fVuZoFpL1_TVXtsRwSQbQgw0ZDAW8OgGUIjMXFlLSfblTxY2-ruAUNMXGpraHwGeTnlLwhUHuZoPEoqd1jaZ1yxJMhM6CueSw2WgOtjqitOAB1rv583QnB/s400/Oceansat_Leslie.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">On the wider view of the <a href="http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/datasets/OSCATData.php/" target="_blank">Oceansat</a> data we see a very good circulation that is tilted eastward with the strongest winds over the northeast quadrant. Unfortunately NOAA and the Air Force Hurricane Hunter Aircraft are not flying into the storm. NASA is sending a <a href="http://www.gsnmagazine.com/node/27099" target="_blank">Global Hawk</a> over the storm tomorrow which may reveal the upper flow patterns and more about the tilt of Leslie, providing additional information for the models. This could help to pin down the track even more. A closer view of the <a href="http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/datasets/OSCATData.php/" target="_blank">Oceansat</a> data (below) shows 65 knots from satellite derived winds near the center of circulation just northeast of the center. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgn9r1Zsfhj2_krWhs7Mx9Qr8crjx4nnFEAEvg79BndwmFzR6TO-giJKd2nQS8uzCpK7LdqhyphenhyphenQqPJ9sjsqaQ9lqsUoXP_Vu3ZkcHUTMa0GUB2potfDNrGhEGmCsZIkuLzIiKsCj9LAjrA-_/s1600/Oceansat_Leslie_zoom.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgn9r1Zsfhj2_krWhs7Mx9Qr8crjx4nnFEAEvg79BndwmFzR6TO-giJKd2nQS8uzCpK7LdqhyphenhyphenQqPJ9sjsqaQ9lqsUoXP_Vu3ZkcHUTMa0GUB2potfDNrGhEGmCsZIkuLzIiKsCj9LAjrA-_/s400/Oceansat_Leslie_zoom.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The visible satellite view shows a slightly better organization to the storm today.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJ4HxOZK1dBF7M-WmlxJ78v2vsHED5_OPzmM4ulAGtWRgRhVW_ojKtRUWrHgakOmSNi2avWHsRlvabUPvxj-bOywfccIEi0JdDZmVI5W31nyvp0xlfsIlDoySj5TQvbUPmG3bL90kYlC62/s1600/Leslie_visible.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJ4HxOZK1dBF7M-WmlxJ78v2vsHED5_OPzmM4ulAGtWRgRhVW_ojKtRUWrHgakOmSNi2avWHsRlvabUPvxj-bOywfccIEi0JdDZmVI5W31nyvp0xlfsIlDoySj5TQvbUPmG3bL90kYlC62/s400/Leslie_visible.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The track has shifted to the east as mentioned above, although possibly due more to the upper low northeast of Bermuda than the trough moving across the New England Coast.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3FzTR62qQoVTl-dKGv4aLDagMnr1YTrsglqSAnWMZ4xPXhPka5aZJp5DQYDhDoM_S1jMMgyfytSwfg5BmK9fk7RK0l7PhovxQyRqjAUIC7yreE0zoja6Dp2v6d_8g3KrsiM9tEtciEsI4/s1600/Leslie_track_furtue.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3FzTR62qQoVTl-dKGv4aLDagMnr1YTrsglqSAnWMZ4xPXhPka5aZJp5DQYDhDoM_S1jMMgyfytSwfg5BmK9fk7RK0l7PhovxQyRqjAUIC7yreE0zoja6Dp2v6d_8g3KrsiM9tEtciEsI4/s400/Leslie_track_furtue.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">There is some developing wind shear to the west of Bermuda with a COL region (region of little winds and wind shear) to the north of Bermuda. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUNPMHlf6S2pTvaIAv7jkXLEMKd5A8iS3OfzRoOYxZex8cmpov-pGS9JVxHG0PQBfbV_OQEkMHIZ2l_V3qtCvDxBR2PAFIjw6O1iKaw7CMjUyy9_OGNpMwfKxrkBmn5RAa3-YbFRR8hnQY/s1600/Leslie_Shear.GIF" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="301" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUNPMHlf6S2pTvaIAv7jkXLEMKd5A8iS3OfzRoOYxZex8cmpov-pGS9JVxHG0PQBfbV_OQEkMHIZ2l_V3qtCvDxBR2PAFIjw6O1iKaw7CMjUyy9_OGNpMwfKxrkBmn5RAa3-YbFRR8hnQY/s400/Leslie_Shear.GIF" width="400" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikw6CQJWVCdIEApAV3AlsE4jiENjWfFjU9zsFgm9Xyuuu2uJbA0oE_-WD5IbFGJ6VqM2BuAg9DUg_qbM-SPt7bviOZRthwiX0KaCp4J6kMTvRdK-hp4WWYHYyADE6_hNRNvyh2qQqabDrE/s1600/wg8sht.GIF" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="282" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikw6CQJWVCdIEApAV3AlsE4jiENjWfFjU9zsFgm9Xyuuu2uJbA0oE_-WD5IbFGJ6VqM2BuAg9DUg_qbM-SPt7bviOZRthwiX0KaCp4J6kMTvRdK-hp4WWYHYyADE6_hNRNvyh2qQqabDrE/s400/wg8sht.GIF" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">While the change in track isn't great news for Bermuda, it is better news. If the track continues the shift to the right I would expect the impacts will be less due to the stronger winds in eastern semicircle. Everyone I know, not many, in Bermuda are prepared and waiting. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Be Safe!</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">BC</span>Bills Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14957477832288295946noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8982719695170324675.post-6439852195083906442012-09-03T15:35:00.002-07:002012-09-03T15:35:47.265-07:00Leslie looking better today.<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The satellite presentation from Leslie looks much different than 24 hours ago. From visible satellite loops earlier in the day, the center circulation started out exposed from the vigorous convection to the south and east. Latest satellite interrogation shows the convection is wrapping around the circulation again late this afternoon. This likely signifies a storm at least better better organized. Also think this may induce a period of intensification for several reasons. Here is a look at Leslie </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhy7s_L_yR-B4APATS7Q60zYUGJrdr4PK6q-_sucohSa4xoB-vHMfJXMbjT03fFDC_36SqZTYOT2T3BQuaH2SHf0OPJN4Ft24QyFdK22t9e-WmV_kicgAbcnTnU8ZkrGrhotkalm4ybuaS/s1600/Leslie_VIS.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhy7s_L_yR-B4APATS7Q60zYUGJrdr4PK6q-_sucohSa4xoB-vHMfJXMbjT03fFDC_36SqZTYOT2T3BQuaH2SHf0OPJN4Ft24QyFdK22t9e-WmV_kicgAbcnTnU8ZkrGrhotkalm4ybuaS/s400/Leslie_VIS.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The ripples near the brightest white are gravity waves propagating outward from the deep convective burst. This image is a little old, couple of hours, but shows the convection engulfing the center of circulation. The image below shows how intense the convection really is with -80 Celsius and colder cloud tops. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeVXlB_eg8MGxs0xqNLO33sGvqsOgOouwscQg0WeswlBNeEyYvZkRR61tPwcKgBTVwfMp53UTA3Si46-4o66IuxcABCE6DZIvoGra4uQcMsXCPhFr139KjCB5rIg8zkk3k6O5WR-06EVak/s1600/Leslie_track_CIMSS.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeVXlB_eg8MGxs0xqNLO33sGvqsOgOouwscQg0WeswlBNeEyYvZkRR61tPwcKgBTVwfMp53UTA3Si46-4o66IuxcABCE6DZIvoGra4uQcMsXCPhFr139KjCB5rIg8zkk3k6O5WR-06EVak/s400/Leslie_track_CIMSS.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The forecast track has shifted ever so slightly to the west likely due to the forecast models as we haven't really had any trends to follow for the last day or two. The forecast will likely change over the next few cycles as the storm gets its act together so this is not hard and fast yet. My thoughts are if the storm moves west of Bermuda this places the Island in the higher risk area of Leslie. The right front quadrant has statistically the highest winds, more likely to have tornadoes, and greatest storm tides/surge. Recent Oceansat 2 satellite pass shows the winds around Leslie quite well.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXnMtWRpuZ6sQVrYV5v2xDVjBAJQjbCG2Fh4AV1pcJQ3tNqDI5iTuUtdSdktPnIT5s20sMle7UtVYG9uXX2LL2QL4Kj-9yIH2vdilMUaudH0oK3QPcKfBsQXsXvAZEzNyioWWLKVMmE0Rr/s1600/OSCAT_Leslie.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXnMtWRpuZ6sQVrYV5v2xDVjBAJQjbCG2Fh4AV1pcJQ3tNqDI5iTuUtdSdktPnIT5s20sMle7UtVYG9uXX2LL2QL4Kj-9yIH2vdilMUaudH0oK3QPcKfBsQXsXvAZEzNyioWWLKVMmE0Rr/s400/OSCAT_Leslie.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The winds are highest on the east side of the storm which reinforces the idea of the right front quadrant as the most potent area of the storm. Another reason that Leslie may intensify is that the shearing around the storm has relaxed, as has the shear tendency.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHRoKhP6BQ9VhAkG-aSUCyLtuP4NhcBgth5AunTq8yBFsrIdwGgdGB7dOTBCJC37NsR4l0Zv5zDR_V1zRmu6Ss9eoolqL_I2JSYmfTs1FLcZ1puydunYVgVb6AumIv6SzT-bK_EKxwIdRt/s1600/Leslie_shear.GIF" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="301" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHRoKhP6BQ9VhAkG-aSUCyLtuP4NhcBgth5AunTq8yBFsrIdwGgdGB7dOTBCJC37NsR4l0Zv5zDR_V1zRmu6Ss9eoolqL_I2JSYmfTs1FLcZ1puydunYVgVb6AumIv6SzT-bK_EKxwIdRt/s400/Leslie_shear.GIF" width="400" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj20crUSupf2Q3-64ECiDhdNzEbCQAy5NMiPP2g7DvYZW8zp3Pd2g64J7Au3SntakvdAQehS1RYrl2YSo_6kvB_gWA2Ks6z6M8zKOjPaWe8D2nf8xdVFuk9-E17fN07iGQAhi_BA9SkGkFz/s1600/Leslie_sheartendency.GIF" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="282" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj20crUSupf2Q3-64ECiDhdNzEbCQAy5NMiPP2g7DvYZW8zp3Pd2g64J7Au3SntakvdAQehS1RYrl2YSo_6kvB_gWA2Ks6z6M8zKOjPaWe8D2nf8xdVFuk9-E17fN07iGQAhi_BA9SkGkFz/s400/Leslie_sheartendency.GIF" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The NHC wind probabilities indicate that the chance of Leslie reaching hurricane strength is about 50%. Again I think that this may change sometime through the next few forecast cycles due to the more favorable environment around the storm, and better storm-centric </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">organization. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The next few graphics show the numerical probabilities, and updated Tropical Storm/Hurricane force winds graphics. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEga7t7625NerZBTxBsIGjd3Cxdzl101yVFiyceBpbAkwnHBwBybTasoZFDJCsY5L2uF_buw0jrj8-_3gnp5x2nzlW2gviwGMLZeR-QCc1Wl79pMYUscPvqFPn1pgWtAfT9xBFHv6zkpnj8D/s1600/Leslie_probs.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEga7t7625NerZBTxBsIGjd3Cxdzl101yVFiyceBpbAkwnHBwBybTasoZFDJCsY5L2uF_buw0jrj8-_3gnp5x2nzlW2gviwGMLZeR-QCc1Wl79pMYUscPvqFPn1pgWtAfT9xBFHv6zkpnj8D/s400/Leslie_probs.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigbIMFHMulIVR4w-aLX_yR2C1Rv9MhYWbC6q-ikZlvKDl4j2haO08bmnTTs8ICeiUNDS0e0FyPWgqJCSfS2xM8g_1xN4RxSxwGnHliOYsFzyXpjtpvLdIqVSp1Tj8qAB6dbdFIjuzplD6j/s1600/Leslie_TSwind_probs.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="318" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigbIMFHMulIVR4w-aLX_yR2C1Rv9MhYWbC6q-ikZlvKDl4j2haO08bmnTTs8ICeiUNDS0e0FyPWgqJCSfS2xM8g_1xN4RxSxwGnHliOYsFzyXpjtpvLdIqVSp1Tj8qAB6dbdFIjuzplD6j/s400/Leslie_TSwind_probs.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhV4V_u2v3hM_kIXqMtqe-n7Ljp-YS2U9OmIu8_j4mMRas77tJSMnO7mxrf3qTXcO-9ydGbDAuLmKq782XDbyf_HkOy92p7E8dBhTgH9zNfYYmr3GWJj2ykG5W_1qgvxBwQgx6PnSSg6Wls/s1600/Leslie_HURRwind_probs.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="318" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhV4V_u2v3hM_kIXqMtqe-n7Ljp-YS2U9OmIu8_j4mMRas77tJSMnO7mxrf3qTXcO-9ydGbDAuLmKq782XDbyf_HkOy92p7E8dBhTgH9zNfYYmr3GWJj2ykG5W_1qgvxBwQgx6PnSSg6Wls/s400/Leslie_HURRwind_probs.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">For my friends in Bermuda, the best advice I can offer is to be prepared. Speak with people that have been there a long time as they will have local experience that will prove invaluable. The folks along New England should be keep a watchful eye on Leslie just in case. I do think the models, especially the GFS...Global Forecast System...have a good handle on the track after 5 days taking the storm, northward, then northeastward with the greatest impact to the Canadian Maritimes before heading out to the North Atlantic. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I will keep an eye on this one. Leslie is at least proving interesting from a forecasters point of view. Last note...surfers along the Eastern Seaboard, and the boarder islands between the Caribbean and Atlantic are going to have great surf. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Be safe,</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">BC </span>Bills Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14957477832288295946noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8982719695170324675.post-34020063506986145292012-09-02T15:32:00.004-07:002012-09-02T15:32:55.543-07:00Leslie hangs in, Friday's comin! <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">'Leslie keeps chugging away even though the environment surrounding the system is quite hostile, and the storm itself is rather disorganized. A look at satellite shows some convection near the center of the circulation, but not surrounding it. All images with a few exceptions are from CIMSS: </span><a class="style2a" href="http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/" style="color: red; font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; text-decoration: none;">Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies</a><br />
<a class="style2a" href="http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/" style="color: black; font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; text-decoration: none;">Space Science and Engineering Center</a><span style="background-color: #b0cbe8; color: #00005f;"> / </span><a class="style2a" href="http://www.wisc.edu/" style="color: black; font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; text-decoration: none;">University of Wisconsin-Madison</a><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">From the image above we see the "one sided" appearance with most of the convection held to the southern hemisphere of Leslie. The reason for this is the shear in the environment around the storm. The next several images will help describe this better than words. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">First the shearing environment, </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-w4K6PyENhy5gx2tNR-e9grH2xrLraj7h7cl23Ga3bClOTMLhiY2ioxdRBF8dYN-P7g9xQoDYy552O3O1atJoagF_PXEZ1eb8uLyp5JfO_7PGWgorWHyNpPaCWmXs91iUkGoZQ0ArzeaI/s1600/Shear_Leslie.GIF" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="301" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-w4K6PyENhy5gx2tNR-e9grH2xrLraj7h7cl23Ga3bClOTMLhiY2ioxdRBF8dYN-P7g9xQoDYy552O3O1atJoagF_PXEZ1eb8uLyp5JfO_7PGWgorWHyNpPaCWmXs91iUkGoZQ0ArzeaI/s400/Shear_Leslie.GIF" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Notice the shear values on the northeast and west quadrants between 40 and 50 knots. The shear tendency is increasing as well in these areas.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjo0AvDYekDRW35Vkg7NhCViKFA0R6jJ88RRNPHIgUrtb3RLvn880tVHG3Zb71N2lAj6iJv3gFgSPP2f8VxNEyCFytOISbVxNCooPqBdE3-ENvcPSy8elbZjTtnmgW1viYfFCaRZM9IWJAg/s1600/Sheaar_Tendency_Leslie.GIF" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="282" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjo0AvDYekDRW35Vkg7NhCViKFA0R6jJ88RRNPHIgUrtb3RLvn880tVHG3Zb71N2lAj6iJv3gFgSPP2f8VxNEyCFytOISbVxNCooPqBdE3-ENvcPSy8elbZjTtnmgW1viYfFCaRZM9IWJAg/s400/Sheaar_Tendency_Leslie.GIF" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">To verify this we have several polar orbiting satellites with good passe near the storm, first the Oceansat-2 (OSCAT) observations, followed by the Advanced Scatterometer, (ASCAT)</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiASg3A3uOCw_sKcOiIgY6r7p84JTwjBH87XBdc9mEUc8lLsUkyLkDRx2WwzKC39C0_amxeMIgcrSjJ8PGq5Ky7awTxOqHbRydIJlmzsVOeANmOHJoE_11TypjHoRkC9UNBj3JPaBpo0d3z/s1600/ASCAT_Leslie.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiASg3A3uOCw_sKcOiIgY6r7p84JTwjBH87XBdc9mEUc8lLsUkyLkDRx2WwzKC39C0_amxeMIgcrSjJ8PGq5Ky7awTxOqHbRydIJlmzsVOeANmOHJoE_11TypjHoRkC9UNBj3JPaBpo0d3z/s400/ASCAT_Leslie.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Notice the higher winds on the east semicircle indicating the shear to the east. Looking further out from Leslie we find the mechanisms responsible for the slow and indecisive motion of the storm during the past 24 hours or so.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIuOyIdaPE71aEEdPqPQHRQTpkDBVUFeTDl5G4Mcq0l-uePD9YrSsTrU_EuypSqHn4ior1vVIG8BIuVkVH1e3yLFlTNbNSvV2NFefBS9MqacgfewYIemEhKgdKWrtC_SzuQGxS1I815ABW/s1600/West_ATL_CARIB_winds.GIF" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="301" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIuOyIdaPE71aEEdPqPQHRQTpkDBVUFeTDl5G4Mcq0l-uePD9YrSsTrU_EuypSqHn4ior1vVIG8BIuVkVH1e3yLFlTNbNSvV2NFefBS9MqacgfewYIemEhKgdKWrtC_SzuQGxS1I815ABW/s400/West_ATL_CARIB_winds.GIF" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Total winds show the upper level low parked over the Bahamas which has begun to retrograde to the west. A trough across the southeast is pushing toward the northern Gulf of Mexico, and a mesoscale ridge is stalled over the northeastern Gulf. A better look at the upper levels only reveals the low very well.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTr75bwIWnhU1jLpcXPqOrPW4fNDIsfNpB5Zfx1Ck0kDiNvdythyn2lNJvdlP76Ks6RJnpLWzrPUG0FnakFJ6TAL81TWz9_5OMOCRMeitUgJ1xpHXo7ZIWeGfaGdtKhqbLpecQHFxkVlwu/s1600/Leslie_winds_evnvironment.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTr75bwIWnhU1jLpcXPqOrPW4fNDIsfNpB5Zfx1Ck0kDiNvdythyn2lNJvdlP76Ks6RJnpLWzrPUG0FnakFJ6TAL81TWz9_5OMOCRMeitUgJ1xpHXo7ZIWeGfaGdtKhqbLpecQHFxkVlwu/s400/Leslie_winds_evnvironment.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">So where is Leslie going? Not very far very fast. Plus the environment may become less hostile for redevelopment late in the forecast. From CIMSS:</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvBAeA0-Fyj9XNsQEMtMKPC5dfX0OQr6WDGhTO2JNpAhJyXnDfeZcZmZ85sesY0mjumuZ5csSCjWUL-8s0jIAFkJKhcGTuYHLWgXdMXs_6jK6enOqvWRIfgZl72ErqgXOOS6WsaFPcD-4E/s1600/Leslie_track.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvBAeA0-Fyj9XNsQEMtMKPC5dfX0OQr6WDGhTO2JNpAhJyXnDfeZcZmZ85sesY0mjumuZ5csSCjWUL-8s0jIAFkJKhcGTuYHLWgXdMXs_6jK6enOqvWRIfgZl72ErqgXOOS6WsaFPcD-4E/s400/Leslie_track.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">From <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/" target="_blank">NHC</a> the official forecast which is easier to look at but I like the display from CIMSS better:</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtS1wyUtsB0J4A7SKWbDUNclrL6rzBjaOgbmDsj7DxhBfSVnplUcNh9m2bfla3lsH8t9UcQDd2VrCksR6drzvYGXN1or3IzY7IbIejr6_SSwcH5bv4SJJ0JXutMyVLECtOZpkwta6B-2EA/s1600/210007W5_NL_sm.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtS1wyUtsB0J4A7SKWbDUNclrL6rzBjaOgbmDsj7DxhBfSVnplUcNh9m2bfla3lsH8t9UcQDd2VrCksR6drzvYGXN1or3IzY7IbIejr6_SSwcH5bv4SJJ0JXutMyVLECtOZpkwta6B-2EA/s400/210007W5_NL_sm.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The forecast beyond this time frame is uncertain but I am certain that some sources in the media will be touting the future of the storm and the model output. So to soften this I will show you the extended models in the order of the (GFS) Global Forecast System, (ECMWF) European Medium Range Forecast, and the (CMC) Environment Canada models. Environment Canada has proven to be the intensification model of choice. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2CFna6X890hq-rdyknKspSGzlsTZpKPGb6MTxLXc0qiioP_2QLn88jOcsWp07k2mBaiDVsUlml1wtQx-eG5HeD39LF8NN1N9KKnq4F7O3eShGjsfWdnz7gWWfuL3Tvms3wgpXm9ITDjnF/s1600/Leslie_168_hours_GFS.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2CFna6X890hq-rdyknKspSGzlsTZpKPGb6MTxLXc0qiioP_2QLn88jOcsWp07k2mBaiDVsUlml1wtQx-eG5HeD39LF8NN1N9KKnq4F7O3eShGjsfWdnz7gWWfuL3Tvms3wgpXm9ITDjnF/s400/Leslie_168_hours_GFS.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQax3Y7dyzKnnuqD_MaGoNSP9gVWj1Z0ZTVJwYCtQ-sGSJ8oxI0xH6_OpK_i8FEWUF4w3Z7Fds3L0mEvu7Eh_u1zMBcNsTmtnqUd-goJ0mu8RgFGCzDpbofg6M_AYpRS5mA7T4ABm2q2dX/s1600/Leslie_168_hours_ECMWF.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQax3Y7dyzKnnuqD_MaGoNSP9gVWj1Z0ZTVJwYCtQ-sGSJ8oxI0xH6_OpK_i8FEWUF4w3Z7Fds3L0mEvu7Eh_u1zMBcNsTmtnqUd-goJ0mu8RgFGCzDpbofg6M_AYpRS5mA7T4ABm2q2dX/s400/Leslie_168_hours_ECMWF.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisO8eLTp_mhX6l3G3NW6HyTSrYDsE9LP3DABVigRTuC1NW8lg6y22jqwXKf6MOl9VkpwzXBjaytNdz-a2oQ-6ULxGyzdg-AF7GfnhcNiFdNFPl6ooUvFtR1_CHvPJB4OgsgfKpCF5cVhYj/s1600/Leslie_144_hours_CMC.Canadian.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisO8eLTp_mhX6l3G3NW6HyTSrYDsE9LP3DABVigRTuC1NW8lg6y22jqwXKf6MOl9VkpwzXBjaytNdz-a2oQ-6ULxGyzdg-AF7GfnhcNiFdNFPl6ooUvFtR1_CHvPJB4OgsgfKpCF5cVhYj/s400/Leslie_144_hours_CMC.Canadian.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">All show some significant intensification after 5 days while picking up forward speed and heading for the Canadian Maritimes. This we will have to wait for. The model errors are significantly higher in the extended time periods of the forecast.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Be well,</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">BC</span>Bills Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14957477832288295946noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8982719695170324675.post-16303153577525818372012-08-31T17:34:00.000-07:002012-08-31T17:34:04.434-07:00Leslie<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Good evening all,</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Thought after the past week that there may be some curiosity about Leslie in the Atlantic. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Now that I am finally back with the living and mostly rested after the bought with Isaac and a long line of long shifts, I should put something out about the tropics, good and bad, but not so bad. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">First graphic is the future track for Leslie and this system should remain out in the central Atlantic. There may be some action for Bermuda but mostly a fish storm. (The not so bad)</span><br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTO6QCwM_CgJyCEuyqY0wxaf9nY14-4ZjUFRvFwNGIX6054VNASJ3U9RnPXneFY-O5eRi2VzSnMk4BKswr3Dzpw3oR3VN30eTwxYCXpbiry7XbvhU1v8mma8yS4Vk-qPq3B6sihZiLNTWC/s1600/Leslie_track_forecast.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTO6QCwM_CgJyCEuyqY0wxaf9nY14-4ZjUFRvFwNGIX6054VNASJ3U9RnPXneFY-O5eRi2VzSnMk4BKswr3Dzpw3oR3VN30eTwxYCXpbiry7XbvhU1v8mma8yS4Vk-qPq3B6sihZiLNTWC/s400/Leslie_track_forecast.gif" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Thanks to CIMSS </span>
<a class="style2a" href="http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/" style="color: red; font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: start; text-decoration: none;">Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies</a><br style="color: #00005f; font-size: medium; text-align: start;" /><a class="style2a" href="http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/" style="color: black; font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: start; text-decoration: none;">Space Science and Engineering Center</a><span style="background-color: #b0cbe8; color: #00005f; font-size: small; text-align: start;"> / </span><a class="style2a" href="http://www.wisc.edu/" style="color: black; font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: start; text-decoration: none;">University of Wisconsin-Madison</a> </td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The good is that behind Leslie a plume of dust from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is moving off the African coast and will be crossing the central Atlantic. This should subdue any development at least for the next week. </span><br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheGuoGmrvuhZGlrcueS6PH4OYH2O-sJX4gcxtOQucRuexhzh-TJ0fnS7Dhs7gjS8bsT8jXRGtb-JUrfVTbODEg7DeZxMKrkCbH6xkNQFcN1UQeONvYMzL3cfWyY9PhP_mUwgFd-eyACMr2/s1600/SAL.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="152" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheGuoGmrvuhZGlrcueS6PH4OYH2O-sJX4gcxtOQucRuexhzh-TJ0fnS7Dhs7gjS8bsT8jXRGtb-JUrfVTbODEg7DeZxMKrkCbH6xkNQFcN1UQeONvYMzL3cfWyY9PhP_mUwgFd-eyACMr2/s400/SAL.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Thanks to CIMSS </span> <a class="style2a" href="http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/" style="color: red; font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: start; text-decoration: none;">Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies</a><br style="color: #00005f; font-size: medium; text-align: start;" /><a class="style2a" href="http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/" style="color: black; font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: start; text-decoration: none;">Space Science and Engineering Center</a><span style="background-color: #b0cbe8; color: #00005f; font-size: small; text-align: start;"> / </span><a class="style2a" href="http://www.wisc.edu/" style="color: black; font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: start; text-decoration: none;">University of Wisconsin-Madison</a> </td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">That's all I have for now. I hope all my friends along the Northern Gulf of Mexico have made it through Isaac unscathed, or with as little problem as possible. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">BC</span>Bills Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14957477832288295946noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8982719695170324675.post-46340092505619102272012-08-27T23:05:00.002-07:002012-08-28T03:22:12.873-07:00Isaac heading for the Delta !UPDATE! 6AM<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">After heading home early I woke and saw that there appears to be an eye wall forming on Isaac south of the Mouth of the Mississippi. The first rain bands are wrapping along the coast as well. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhN1KWZOczziffekqAgLL8wVLcaCjpUXGqSGGz6qhrkVjdx934hHza5eqqqEt48yIuKM3-ZwKOEUNNtwUX2SK0Ic3A5fu-v0mtq_x81GsAracBbOFwaL-1yKqPFsbkSwGmRAfbdyEPhdOdd/s1600/SimuAWIPSEYE.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="190" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhN1KWZOczziffekqAgLL8wVLcaCjpUXGqSGGz6qhrkVjdx934hHza5eqqqEt48yIuKM3-ZwKOEUNNtwUX2SK0Ic3A5fu-v0mtq_x81GsAracBbOFwaL-1yKqPFsbkSwGmRAfbdyEPhdOdd/s400/SimuAWIPSEYE.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The storm may be undergoing some RI (rapid intensification) due to dry air to the north wrapping into the center. the proximity to landfall should limit the degree of strengthening. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">All my friends along the northern Gulf Coast should have completed preparations. Especially those that live in coastal communities, even as far east as the Big Bend of Florida. The storm surge will be fairly significant as Isaac makes landfall and the wave action will likely cause erosion to the beaches, and in the usual places along Highway 98 across the Florida Panhandle and coastal Alabama. Lets address the numbers on Isaac first, at 11 pm Isaac was located about 190 miles southeast of the entrance of the Mississippi River. The storm is moving northwest (310) degrees near 10 mph, and maximum sustained winds are 70 mph with gusts 75 to 80 mph, using a 1.2 to 1.4 gust factor. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Below is a list of Watches and Warnings from the last <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/" target="_blank">NHC</a> advisory.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhlhXIb0rzaT47Yy2Y32mnSIhmkd5pZUh6QH-9UvzdQAasofsUNg4Q8rPI41PiMfnk0H3wxd-0z7Oaj8UREXCXb7nqKAbW466w7oOD6FNZE0oQGCommB-t7NuyBzxbWwZdHVYUJxqsUEmkG/s1600/WatchesWarnings.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhlhXIb0rzaT47Yy2Y32mnSIhmkd5pZUh6QH-9UvzdQAasofsUNg4Q8rPI41PiMfnk0H3wxd-0z7Oaj8UREXCXb7nqKAbW466w7oOD6FNZE0oQGCommB-t7NuyBzxbWwZdHVYUJxqsUEmkG/s400/WatchesWarnings.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The storm surge may be the highest risk to life and property as Isaac makes landfall. The following links are for <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/033838.shtml?gm_esurge#contents" target="_blank">Storm Surge Exceedance</a>, neaning above the <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#NGVD1929" target="_blank">National Geodetic Vertical Datum</a>, not mean sea level. Then the <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/033838.shtml?gm_psurge#contents" target="_blank">Storm Surge Probabilities</a>, based on the same datum. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The track of Isaac has held fairly steady since passing just south and west of Key West last night, likely between the Marquesas Keys and the Dry Tortugas National Park around 6 pm with a minimum pressure of 997.3 at the Key West International Airport. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjToEzXuw3gRFrUkv54Efn7TNl6f17cylA3G9eCSOSnKH6YTK46g2O-RcRyqMB6BFAdMFvNZrERASQbAzI4E0n0ajjccMWI2f8Ej8XQVWKA1toQ1IRvuaDdZh9v6TDnxei8ueqHiA7uQ6CA/s1600/Isaac_track.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjToEzXuw3gRFrUkv54Efn7TNl6f17cylA3G9eCSOSnKH6YTK46g2O-RcRyqMB6BFAdMFvNZrERASQbAzI4E0n0ajjccMWI2f8Ej8XQVWKA1toQ1IRvuaDdZh9v6TDnxei8ueqHiA7uQ6CA/s400/Isaac_track.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The storm has been gradually intensifying during the day and is nearing category one strength. Isaac has been churning over the Gulf of Mexico for a couple of days as indicated by the seas, buoy 42003 west of Ft. Myers has measured seas around 17 feet. The forecast is for a moderate category one hurricane at landfall with 80 mph sustained and up to 100 mph gusts. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuHHVmgJcdtkcMfoPjg4ft4j7wMbV4M0_LOrYAh0CJgaCGy5jg9QFSkD21x3Wz9GIJZGVImjAv5lEPc5hqtlyYb1HMfVcEzzPv2PvIm43yHJUYhWurgIW4QwbSv_L0iRkfOiIyTccsp8Pn/s1600/Isaac_probs.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuHHVmgJcdtkcMfoPjg4ft4j7wMbV4M0_LOrYAh0CJgaCGy5jg9QFSkD21x3Wz9GIJZGVImjAv5lEPc5hqtlyYb1HMfVcEzzPv2PvIm43yHJUYhWurgIW4QwbSv_L0iRkfOiIyTccsp8Pn/s400/Isaac_probs.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The above is a chart of the hurricane wind speed probabilities. You will notice that the likelihood of anything stronger than category one is at the highest value, 16 percent. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLtov-6IC-X_ZvqhGZZ0zvEoTR0Q0mGZDWdQpdgy1EMmMez0YQ8hMJdNWmpt82sV_IiTs75WqZyrRnPv6Q1i8VV0uO0tCZTndYha1lBZ7K5ipYMXTSiE7QbvbXoAzaxTwao_A6TNHLtEDI/s1600/Isaac_NO.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLtov-6IC-X_ZvqhGZZ0zvEoTR0Q0mGZDWdQpdgy1EMmMez0YQ8hMJdNWmpt82sV_IiTs75WqZyrRnPv6Q1i8VV0uO0tCZTndYha1lBZ7K5ipYMXTSiE7QbvbXoAzaxTwao_A6TNHLtEDI/s400/Isaac_NO.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This is a much weaker storm than Katrina, but should not be underestimated. The storm winds after passage away from Key West were higher than as the storm passed south of the island. The wind field is quite large as was seen with the winds from Northern Broward county through St. Lucie Counties along the east coast of Florida last night. Please be <a href="http://www.nws.noaa.gov/com/weatherreadynation/" target="_blank">Weather Ready</a>, and be safe. For current watches and warnings along with the fastest updates go to your National Hurricane Center website, and for local warnings, hurricane local statements, and preparedness guides, go to your local <a href="http://www.weather.gov/" target="_blank">National Weather Service</a> web page at the point and click site. Also remember, your best source for weather information on the web ends with <u style="font-style: italic; font-weight: bold;">.gov</u> not .com. :-) My last midnight shift for 5 weeks with a couple of extras thrown in for fun, I am ready for sleep. Will update tomorrow if I wake up in time for the land falling event. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Let me know how the storm has impacted you through the comments section of the blog. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Cheers,</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Bill</span>Bills Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14957477832288295946noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8982719695170324675.post-22459946140033397912012-08-26T21:49:00.004-07:002012-08-26T21:49:37.915-07:00Issac passes Key West. <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It was a typical tropical storm event for Key West today with some really good winds, some decent rains, lots of palm frond's in the street. Some tidal flooding due to bands pushing water up onto the south side of the islands. Very little damage reported so far. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As of 11 pm Issac was about 75 miles west of Key West near the Dry Tortugas National Park. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhatkN9sCGOTd_p4AYHBlinj1RA4ZFt-3nvw7AU4PdChW0ID5Rg0z0h81QDIsEiBFiynxl8v6d-lTKr8Hh51jUb-jLuSMKpUVS342y5qLHv6ZIoSr5YmT6QiD1cXqAfrq_SByBNMoyXVJa7/s1600/IssacinPulaski.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="181" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhatkN9sCGOTd_p4AYHBlinj1RA4ZFt-3nvw7AU4PdChW0ID5Rg0z0h81QDIsEiBFiynxl8v6d-lTKr8Hh51jUb-jLuSMKpUVS342y5qLHv6ZIoSr5YmT6QiD1cXqAfrq_SByBNMoyXVJa7/s400/IssacinPulaski.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Maximum winds from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 55 knots and Issac was heading west-northwest near 14 mph. Issac should slow its forward sped a bit and gain some strength as it bears down on the Gulf Coast of Louisiana / Mississippi. The maximum in the intensity forecast is for a moderate to high category one hurricane before landfall. my experience with the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center, National Weather Service WFO Slidell, and the Corps of Engineers, is that they are the best in the business. While working in Ft. Worth during the floods of 2011 I believe the City of New Orleans, and the State of Louisiana will keep their communities safe with Issac. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/" target="_blank">NHC</a> track is slowly shifting west again:</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1eEtnSRyyGeeyoIomdJNiNrawY8HHApWvcEW8qFZnBrXFIVNdcFoPxWFt_DzkY56B7njK9LCUqTh4LWNmUZRnBhGun_Ycp8lgdU0MJyQbWAtDXYj1LgB-2BmqSrlpiAyc9PJ5BKrFFpmf/s1600/031346W5_NL_sm.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1eEtnSRyyGeeyoIomdJNiNrawY8HHApWvcEW8qFZnBrXFIVNdcFoPxWFt_DzkY56B7njK9LCUqTh4LWNmUZRnBhGun_Ycp8lgdU0MJyQbWAtDXYj1LgB-2BmqSrlpiAyc9PJ5BKrFFpmf/s400/031346W5_NL_sm.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The wind probabilities form NHC:</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjv9oMR7WNELxpBSrNv3ITJ4sPcLfSYgGQpaiUQCUcGbaJOr-s59DNqU4eGhgvHcmczyXiM6JX3cqV8cGgbTTtNBoDIeZmv9japQqkz8gPNRZKLc7I7Hog1fNXXVBjv2fwn05nYNqU42bJ_/s1600/Probs.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjv9oMR7WNELxpBSrNv3ITJ4sPcLfSYgGQpaiUQCUcGbaJOr-s59DNqU4eGhgvHcmczyXiM6JX3cqV8cGgbTTtNBoDIeZmv9japQqkz8gPNRZKLc7I7Hog1fNXXVBjv2fwn05nYNqU42bJ_/s400/Probs.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Keep checking your local <a href="http://www%2Cweather.gov/" target="_blank">National Weather Service Office</a> website for hurricane local statements that will have information on closings, shelters, and evacuations in your area. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I'm ready for this one to end now thank you very much! </span></div>
<br />Bills Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14957477832288295946noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8982719695170324675.post-46955117140361635452012-08-25T21:38:00.004-07:002012-08-25T21:40:23.764-07:00Issac Update August 25, 11pm<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Good evening all,</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Sleep deprivation has not won the battle...yet!</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Issac has emerged off the northern Cuban coast and is still having problems with the terrain from the mountains over eastern Cuba. From satellite interrogation we find there is a hole in the convection along the land side of the storm. This is likely due to the mountain shadow produced by down sloping winds moving with the storm. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxFjz4VWrPuEq3gji8u63CeE8hF8WSC-y8ETeg3XkdZFWr6yUutBe2R8dYkKKvsVWBkvldPSwNyQStIt-R1YA5Q0kyJ6qdTaeGf_0qpnmv2Q74YZBB0_miOwfUMeSzxKBzX3oDRcMXzE5s/s1600/Issac_8.26.2012_00z.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxFjz4VWrPuEq3gji8u63CeE8hF8WSC-y8ETeg3XkdZFWr6yUutBe2R8dYkKKvsVWBkvldPSwNyQStIt-R1YA5Q0kyJ6qdTaeGf_0qpnmv2Q74YZBB0_miOwfUMeSzxKBzX3oDRcMXzE5s/s400/Issac_8.26.2012_00z.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The mountain shadow is very clearly shown in the latest ASCAT satellite pass. The wind barbs are red as each barb is worth 10 knots, and the color coding may help. The green would be 30 to 40 knots, dark blue 20 to 30 knots, and ligth blue 10 to 20 knots. (Remember I'm a little color blind so I hope these colors are correct)</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSuoGizIWw2XiCckMSENm95fJjJAUfY2A9yLfkDJl9za6hVV0VzVX-1HwWxyRdWBIOJvk7L83qTpr6OjFXJ4xsOpLcWLd7ElBd3jzVfa4dqenFBoehlTosJv1z177LtptmpzjU5TGEW6It/s1600/ASCAT_TRANSWM.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSuoGizIWw2XiCckMSENm95fJjJAUfY2A9yLfkDJl9za6hVV0VzVX-1HwWxyRdWBIOJvk7L83qTpr6OjFXJ4xsOpLcWLd7ElBd3jzVfa4dqenFBoehlTosJv1z177LtptmpzjU5TGEW6It/s400/ASCAT_TRANSWM.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The forecast track once again is clustered around the global and mesoscale model consensus that has been in very good agreement even with the ECMWF for the past 6 or 7 runs. Now that the storm is on the north side of Cuba there is absolutely no reason to go against it. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkinRAiGPA9HM2zjTPQf8GOWOA8Bf87BXWj7znChMYYKDNF_l1LJOAvQ6Pdp_KEa0sKPQmH06kWgvVNPMJcy1Nbg3PZgrZJ-dW4tUiepWsubH6ia2z0Mj_7cLctFQcjeXLqo8vO5xkHXpb/s1600/212841W5_NL_sm.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="256" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkinRAiGPA9HM2zjTPQf8GOWOA8Bf87BXWj7znChMYYKDNF_l1LJOAvQ6Pdp_KEa0sKPQmH06kWgvVNPMJcy1Nbg3PZgrZJ-dW4tUiepWsubH6ia2z0Mj_7cLctFQcjeXLqo8vO5xkHXpb/s320/212841W5_NL_sm.gif" width="320" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The time for preparations has passed for the Keys and the storm may pass just before high tide which will put the storm tide as high as 2 to 4 feet. High tide in Key West is 732 pm, and at Pigeon Key in the middle of 7 Mile Bridge is at 637 pm. The storm should be crossing over Key West around 5 pm and may intensify into a minimal category one hurricane as it passes the Lower Keys.</span><br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgR8un5gEckAqybsg4N_YdDkHRHtBJlqk9hUelpheHrd7UvFMHnvW6MRprqmC5W0TEvUVv61g4LjfJXYOMWs6_MQT4fiXBYOXAxqbHdvrmqyuQMuOM88ZOW3kk-QAhHXec9oP9zbE_bJr3p/s1600/keywest_tide.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="167" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgR8un5gEckAqybsg4N_YdDkHRHtBJlqk9hUelpheHrd7UvFMHnvW6MRprqmC5W0TEvUVv61g4LjfJXYOMWs6_MQT4fiXBYOXAxqbHdvrmqyuQMuOM88ZOW3kk-QAhHXec9oP9zbE_bJr3p/s400/keywest_tide.gif" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Key West Tides</td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiiq0wDO-rvmvIplhK8TS5g3wthLJTFMSiOMFlJcjc8r9l66UcunrOkzbqSo-rtmVCY33l-U8MlyXb5Thcs3BZGTAp79QLrOkJbbH_luM3N_uhsCYh_B-evx7lYjM1kGl31tie-_wggMvb/s1600/marathon_pigeonkey_tide.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="167" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiiq0wDO-rvmvIplhK8TS5g3wthLJTFMSiOMFlJcjc8r9l66UcunrOkzbqSo-rtmVCY33l-U8MlyXb5Thcs3BZGTAp79QLrOkJbbH_luM3N_uhsCYh_B-evx7lYjM1kGl31tie-_wggMvb/s400/marathon_pigeonkey_tide.gif" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Marathon, Pigeon Key Tides</td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">From the <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/" target="_blank">National Hurricane Center</a>:</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">* THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">* THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">REEF</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">* FLORIDA BAY</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">
</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">* ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">* THE BAHAMAS</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">REEF</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">* LAKE OKEECHOBEE</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">* THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO TARPON </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">SPRINGS...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">
</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">*</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">* THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NORTH OF TARPON </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">SPRINGS TO INDIAN PASS</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The thinking is that the track has settled down and should be far enough west to make for off shore winds through Tampa Bay. This would keep the risk of storm tides lower than if Issac were to track nearer to the coast. The big question in the forecast is intensity and location at landfall. The storm will head over some warm waters for a rather long period of time even before it reaches the Keys, and then over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. For this reason I think the intensity forecast may be pretty good and have no reason to disagree. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Keep checking your local <a href="http://www.weather.gov/" target="_blank">National Weather Service Office</a> for local hurricane statements which should include shelter and evacuation information for your local area. </span><br />
<br />Bills Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14957477832288295946noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8982719695170324675.post-7046275203051744922012-08-25T01:23:00.002-07:002012-08-25T01:23:46.404-07:00Issac quick update<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As of 09z, 5 am this morning the storm has run up against an mid level vorticity that is lingering over the Florida Straits between Cuba and the Upper Keys. This has also brought the track forecast a little to the left and keeps the core off the northern Cuban coast. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">With this in mind the storm would have a better chance to gain some "juice" as it moves northwest, and therefore NHC is going to intensify the forecast to category 1 hurricane by the 36 hour forecast period. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This will force a hurricane warning for the entire Florida Keys and Southwest Florida Coast. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I will have to bow to the GFS model in so much as it keep banging on the forecast with little deviation, even if the reason was totally unclear as to why. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">There are still some issues with the intensity forecast in my eye, the vorticity to the northwest of Issac, and there are some terrain issues yet to be worked out for the next 24 hours or so. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Issac is forecast to remain in the cat one range of intensity from 36 hours through 96 hours as it crosses the northern Gulf Coast near Mobile Alabama Thursday. On the current track even though it would be necessary to issue a tropical storm warning for Sarasota southward, but the good news is that mort of the winds will be offshore before the storm weakens and moves inland. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I will try to update later, but this boy needs some sleep after I get the morning forecast out at 6am. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Be prepared and be safe.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">BC</span>Bills Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14957477832288295946noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8982719695170324675.post-34126995528573676892012-08-24T22:31:00.000-07:002012-08-24T22:32:59.082-07:00Issac 8.24.2012 11 pm<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Well the interaction of Issac with the mountainous islands along its path has proven to be good, bad, and ugly for the storm. The initial interaction with the southern peninsula of Haiti actually helped the center of circulation consolidate this morning due to the dry air down sloping off the mountains and into the center of Issac. This enhanced the vertical circulation and inturn produced deep convection around a vorticity, becoming the main core of the storm. (the good)</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The interaction with Haiti, slowing motion of the storm, and the down sloping winds have been added to the lift inside the core this evening, subduing the deeper convection. Issac will go through some fluctuations in intensity and a gradual reformation of the core once or twice during the passage across the island. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Latest satellite image shows another burst of convection over the core with a distinct mountain shadow due to the winds down the mountains. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijhNW4rBEqiGEWVUrKml_c7dbHlnTWaU9ewWne-CL1B6LBWzSyL9cbEnbrtzqhZyfi82X6YQGLafilhH3ayn5SEEUqXSOoksJJ9bAxNGiWwE2WCdnBH5m0FSWd_dDjl9-21z3YvNaHWhOT/s1600/IR_8.24.2012.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijhNW4rBEqiGEWVUrKml_c7dbHlnTWaU9ewWne-CL1B6LBWzSyL9cbEnbrtzqhZyfi82X6YQGLafilhH3ayn5SEEUqXSOoksJJ9bAxNGiWwE2WCdnBH5m0FSWd_dDjl9-21z3YvNaHWhOT/s400/IR_8.24.2012.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> The aircraft found a flight level wind of 64 knots, and many measure by dropsonde of 55 knots or better. With that in mind, along with model tracks, NHC has decided to move the storm to the east and intensify the system which will trigger hurricane wording across the keys and south Florida including at least some of Tampa Bay and Melbourne NWS county watch areas. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi618KiSi1YQKiq-JG32XW8l7ud9Y-sR_BQHCH8EGWOiCcfOmhI2on2XSDQCKVlKp9fuSxBobuQC9cF4RV9zqb3Pnmr2FkCndskjqV-dkBFF_P3BNhKrgwG9QQV1mgld2DZnghlig5IqWnr/s1600/8.24.2012.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi618KiSi1YQKiq-JG32XW8l7ud9Y-sR_BQHCH8EGWOiCcfOmhI2on2XSDQCKVlKp9fuSxBobuQC9cF4RV9zqb3Pnmr2FkCndskjqV-dkBFF_P3BNhKrgwG9QQV1mgld2DZnghlig5IqWnr/s400/8.24.2012.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Be prepared for the worst, and know that the intensity forecast is highly suspect at this time due to the continued interaction with the mountains of Haiti and Cuba. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Turn to your official watch and warning authorities, <a href="http://www.weather.gov/" target="_blank">National Weather Service</a>, and the <a href="http://www%2Cnhc%2Cnoaa.gov/" target="_blank">National Hurricane Center</a> for the latest updates. </span>Bills Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14957477832288295946noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8982719695170324675.post-23483283522996408062012-08-24T02:50:00.003-07:002012-08-24T02:50:36.098-07:00Issac Update 3<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Good morning all,</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The last 24 hours have revealed that Issac is a storm without a discernible core. The satellite imagery from Thursday evening showed several vorticity centers and no cohesive core. The mid level circulation is quite impressive and quite large. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Overnight the G-4 aircraft flew a mission over the Atlantic waters north of Hispaniola searching for the breadth of the subtropical ridge, while the P-3 NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft followed recently by the AF C-130 flew through the storm searching for the center of circulation.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1sQsPf5-0QnkAof4-47rXM6KPFj0AFY0K4v2DVuP6hmTTNRiAK26_6DFuXeFqkK8cCQ298LYoqwhXg6Kga3wlDtO_dz6wFAY47KkVB8bCpARFGKZ71_D_AJ52vRjJiYX9DAsOpCEpNWGH/s1600/Issac_8.24.2012_4am_VISWV.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1sQsPf5-0QnkAof4-47rXM6KPFj0AFY0K4v2DVuP6hmTTNRiAK26_6DFuXeFqkK8cCQ298LYoqwhXg6Kga3wlDtO_dz6wFAY47KkVB8bCpARFGKZ71_D_AJ52vRjJiYX9DAsOpCEpNWGH/s400/Issac_8.24.2012_4am_VISWV.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> The image above is the composite water vapor with visible image from CIMSS and the interesting thing is that the transverse banding is occurring in the western convective cluster. This is evident by the feather like high clouds moving out of the bright overcast. These clouds show the outflow channel in the mid and upper level of the storm and is an indication that Issac may be consolidating a bit. The initial position has been shifted southward again and is at 16.2 north, 69.6 west which puts it south of Santo Domingo. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The environment around the storm remains very hostile for development with highly sheared ares on the northwest and northeast periphery of the circulation. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgf6Bw8FYntLgGb5WG2RwoGAqm6AjpIu2y8OPdBFCTfWh5XHiTAgzjqNp-ktFzcIRszNMz7ra06y_ZGG3wjQrKd243VqAen_dph3JoJ9eWvCz9VdRuKU5wwkU_6ofOwjTf-PQ2A2AGzk8pr/s1600/Issac_8.24.2012_Shear_4am.GIF" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="301" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgf6Bw8FYntLgGb5WG2RwoGAqm6AjpIu2y8OPdBFCTfWh5XHiTAgzjqNp-ktFzcIRszNMz7ra06y_ZGG3wjQrKd243VqAen_dph3JoJ9eWvCz9VdRuKU5wwkU_6ofOwjTf-PQ2A2AGzk8pr/s400/Issac_8.24.2012_Shear_4am.GIF" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The shear trends are still introducing higher shearing around the storm. So I certainly do not think the storm will have an easy time moving northward, due to this sheared environment, not to mention the mountains of eastern Cuba. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtGTL5RfiXgL_x-sfPcIdLW8AQmWWT-2njtDy_XjnlWNveq2zMAh7sJJ-iLaHAlqS4MSWkjJhrO1H25iwAxc6zTO2kJLVd5HL1K2TlsR7z8Uqh1UliuNfT3FjIH3o7JVI7kXnZmyTBRAMO/s1600/Issac_8.24.2012_Sheartrend_4am.GIF" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="282" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtGTL5RfiXgL_x-sfPcIdLW8AQmWWT-2njtDy_XjnlWNveq2zMAh7sJJ-iLaHAlqS4MSWkjJhrO1H25iwAxc6zTO2kJLVd5HL1K2TlsR7z8Uqh1UliuNfT3FjIH3o7JVI7kXnZmyTBRAMO/s400/Issac_8.24.2012_Sheartrend_4am.GIF" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The last thing I will say this morning is that the initialization of the storm keeps moving south, the flights through the storm are having an extremely hard time finding the center of circulation, and the current track based on the past few days is showing a very distinct turn to the right. All on which is based on the models being clustered. So we will side with NHC for a weak tropical cyclone with plenty of moisture. Rain and wind are on the menu for the Keys, and the Islands of the Caribbean. Beyond that we need a definitive motion vector to emerge. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj17pv_2cWifrul-ke-ZgvEDOQF1BAyUn_FlYU9ic1HF7URESUOxNu11-Rjn5lR-YEK4l1391Hmvj_brJWTCI4DBkRB5f8OsFuELdZCubBo75l06mJegdndt_YiBOxAUSLTMomwPzbi2hxC/s1600/085052W5_NL_sm.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj17pv_2cWifrul-ke-ZgvEDOQF1BAyUn_FlYU9ic1HF7URESUOxNu11-Rjn5lR-YEK4l1391Hmvj_brJWTCI4DBkRB5f8OsFuELdZCubBo75l06mJegdndt_YiBOxAUSLTMomwPzbi2hxC/s400/085052W5_NL_sm.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> For arguments sake, which there has been a bit of this at my location overnight, if the storm moves northwest to north, and holds together enough to regain strength over the Gulf of Mexico, we may see the models have done a great job. Otherwise, if the storm remains on a more westward track, and passes over or near Jamaica, the forecast will change dramatically. With that being said, everyone along the Gulf Coast and Caribbean should be paying close attention to your local <a href="http://www.weather.gov/" target="_blank">National Weather Service Office</a> and the <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/" target="_blank">National Hurricane Center</a> websites for official forecasts, watches, and warnings. </span>Bills Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14957477832288295946noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8982719695170324675.post-39501304515289854172012-08-23T00:13:00.001-07:002012-08-23T00:13:12.387-07:00Issac Night 2<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Good morning all,</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Going out on a limb tonight with the mention of dry air, shear, and hostile environment for further development. Looking at the diagnosis tools from CIMSS </span><a href="http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic.php" target="_blank"><span style="color: red; font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies</span></span> <span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">Space Science and Engineering Center</span></span><span style="background-color: #b0cbe8; color: #00005f;"> / </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">University of Wisconsin-Madison</span></span></a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">, I think as plenty of others do in the tropical community, that the re-positioning of the storm center is due to the sheariing environment around the storm. From the <a href="http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=sht&zoom=&time=" target="_blank">shear tendency</a> tools we find that the shear over the past 12 hours around the storm has doubled. As to click on the link you'll see the current graphic, click on the -3hr tab in the menu to see previous versions. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">There is clearly a large influx of dry air surrounding Issac tonight indicated by the <a href="http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/main.html" target="_blank">MIMIC TPW</a> (Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery...Total Precipitable Water)</span><span style="color: #0000bb; font-size: large;"><b> </b></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">products. </span></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Many people much smarter than I have been talking about the dry environment around the storm and the potential impact to development. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As mentioned above the latest flight into Issac has found the center is further south and the tracks will obviously be adjusted in the 5 am update so will not even try to interpolate this at this time. Take a look at the <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/" target="_blank">National Hurricane Center</a> site for the updated track and probabilities in the morning. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Many people are talking about data and the forecast in a negative way. The maximum wind speed probabilities obviously are taking the data into account as they are not very robust with the intensity forecast for the storm. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhda4E11XnkfqCpbS1dHtegR0m-bSUhlFwHDyBSmjNJg9BYAB6XDAvHSoG1ZiQisBU4cWGhczTldWL6OWK8zYbSztvb_SDa6ildvLYw8rQjFYJpO-nQ-T9dR2YJT8PvfpQpV10YRHFuFJ0k/s1600/8.23.2012_2am_probs.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhda4E11XnkfqCpbS1dHtegR0m-bSUhlFwHDyBSmjNJg9BYAB6XDAvHSoG1ZiQisBU4cWGhczTldWL6OWK8zYbSztvb_SDa6ildvLYw8rQjFYJpO-nQ-T9dR2YJT8PvfpQpV10YRHFuFJ0k/s400/8.23.2012_2am_probs.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The highest hurricane probability is 38% for a category one storm in the 36 hour period. The reason for the forecast and track of Issac is the model output. With such good agreement this has to be taken into account as well. The spread in the track forecast is non-existent with the ECMWF as the only outlying model in the group. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicXlOQfjjJpVwxlerC4Z57Nn9QZAz0VmfCqxUBCAnkKxBbN19zUqcoQXJwlcl40D5WBWkUR3GpXz6-V0591e3Xi3lhzzPR6n6bF9cvtW5YSbsD5ONbEdSza7QUR0TXvtbJPwHFgoZfOyvD/s1600/Issac_8.23.2012_2am.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicXlOQfjjJpVwxlerC4Z57Nn9QZAz0VmfCqxUBCAnkKxBbN19zUqcoQXJwlcl40D5WBWkUR3GpXz6-V0591e3Xi3lhzzPR6n6bF9cvtW5YSbsD5ONbEdSza7QUR0TXvtbJPwHFgoZfOyvD/s400/Issac_8.23.2012_2am.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The ECMWF has been right of all the other for several days, but also has a robust system moving up the eastern Gulf of Mexico. With that being said the forecast takes all this information in. The official forecast is reasonable and responsible. The upper level winds near and around the storm are shown in the following graphic.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjL5s3oJDQd3FJeq_CaxSx9Uj0-Jx_NGuyq1hyhIdJmxBSsV31ByjR1kxrDEz3ekX-xTjnCdnEP9MquOlx6CRjg5s7raJ_fozq_duU8otZQOEeEnDftLGmHd2rTCp5SGVAQum_c0cS_IBlo/s1600/Issac_ULwinds_8.23.2012_2am.GIF" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="301" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjL5s3oJDQd3FJeq_CaxSx9Uj0-Jx_NGuyq1hyhIdJmxBSsV31ByjR1kxrDEz3ekX-xTjnCdnEP9MquOlx6CRjg5s7raJ_fozq_duU8otZQOEeEnDftLGmHd2rTCp5SGVAQum_c0cS_IBlo/s400/Issac_ULwinds_8.23.2012_2am.GIF" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The next 24 hours should reveal the true nature of Issac and produce a better forecast solution. The latest <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/WBC/CHGHUR" target="_blank">CHGHUR </a>message from NHC still has chance for a 100 knot storm in 96 hours. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">So we wait a little longer for more data and the storm to either get its act together or not. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">For the latest information for official impacts and forecasts please visit your local <a href="http://www.weather.gov/" target="_blank">National Weather Service Office</a> website, or the <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/" target="_blank">National Hurricane Center</a> website. Please remember that the center line of the forecast has an error. I saw some news stories today the showed the line only, which is a disservice to you. Remember Charley and the cone, the entire west coast of Florida was in the forecast cone and media didn't pay attention to what the hurricane center was putting in the forecast, they just went with what made the highest impact. It is easy to remember...use (.gov) not (.com). Your tax dollars at work. :-)</span>Bills Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14957477832288295946noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8982719695170324675.post-4978547753293523822012-08-22T00:33:00.003-07:002012-08-22T00:33:34.708-07:00Issac<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Good morning all,</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Sorry I didn't update this afternoon. Working a lot of overtime due to the staffing issues here so have had limited time outside work to produce my discussion. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Issac has become better organized over the past 24 hours at least with the convection near the center. The outflow channels are still not well formed, and the environment around the storm is becoming extremely hostile for further development. The TUTT (Tropical Upper Tropopheric Trough) mentioned in last nights discussion is still lurking over eastern Cuba and the Windward Passage. </span><br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxg-oiKkNY0Q-MU9tldjp_FyG45IlDX264ivnG0ZIzYRD2TQ3sgMF56sxjy4Tgjh-o7im4-NicehGc0DtX_Os5TFrtGCJvoj1rGJjv7TR4pm0j7QCQpAA93awMttneyfOk-8UjYESHCclq/s1600/TUTT.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxg-oiKkNY0Q-MU9tldjp_FyG45IlDX264ivnG0ZIzYRD2TQ3sgMF56sxjy4Tgjh-o7im4-NicehGc0DtX_Os5TFrtGCJvoj1rGJjv7TR4pm0j7QCQpAA93awMttneyfOk-8UjYESHCclq/s400/TUTT.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Image thanks to CMISS...</span>
<a class="style2a" href="http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/" style="color: red; font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: start; text-decoration: none;">Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies</a><br style="color: #00005f; font-size: medium; text-align: start;" /><a class="style2a" href="http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/" style="color: black; font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: start; text-decoration: none;">Space Science and Engineering Center</a><span style="background-color: #b0cbe8; color: #00005f; font-size: small; text-align: start;"> / </span><a class="style2a" href="http://www.wisc.edu/" style="color: black; font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: start; text-decoration: none;">University of Wisconsin-Madison</a><br /></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The TUTT is the likely culprit for the added nearly 40 knots of shear in the environment to the east of the storm. </span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWxpNkMHQQXp9-D_pE7wi_fi-ggrQ7MxSpyXi58Qv-EKRtLHAOEIoA3r8yP7ojGwe4ZVjmVl6JKbGpdOy6ybfp_MA3NY5vWQhZs5cYmciNPz4yDNq11heQiwE66Nrft3_hjTUR6al97M0E/s1600/wg8shr_8.22.2012_2am.GIF" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="301" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWxpNkMHQQXp9-D_pE7wi_fi-ggrQ7MxSpyXi58Qv-EKRtLHAOEIoA3r8yP7ojGwe4ZVjmVl6JKbGpdOy6ybfp_MA3NY5vWQhZs5cYmciNPz4yDNq11heQiwE66Nrft3_hjTUR6al97M0E/s400/wg8shr_8.22.2012_2am.GIF" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Image thanks to CMISS...</span> <a class="style2a" href="http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/" style="color: red; font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: start; text-decoration: none;">Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies</a><br style="color: #00005f; font-size: medium; text-align: start;" /><a class="style2a" href="http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/" style="color: black; font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: start; text-decoration: none;">Space Science and Engineering Center</a><span style="background-color: #b0cbe8; color: #00005f; font-size: small; text-align: start;"> / </span><a class="style2a" href="http://www.wisc.edu/" style="color: black; font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: start; text-decoration: none;">University of Wisconsin-Madison</a><br /><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The trough that passed across central Florida Tuesday is hanging around and </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">appears to have a reinforcing push heading southeast across the northern Gulf of Mexico which may be very good for moving the forecast track of the storm more to the east.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixVATf2BH6NZAphPnWZHQMYtSBcUE2rvjnBjBveRrZ-R9Pvyx6OP_ASD2G0BQd8TApNiSACiThiHUYZDYXOXuUSlSKihPzHsgJQxEjANwl7hoYJMmxhr10IFWfQKR-e-kmw4Ewyf_DpUCm/s1600/Trough.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixVATf2BH6NZAphPnWZHQMYtSBcUE2rvjnBjBveRrZ-R9Pvyx6OP_ASD2G0BQd8TApNiSACiThiHUYZDYXOXuUSlSKihPzHsgJQxEjANwl7hoYJMmxhr10IFWfQKR-e-kmw4Ewyf_DpUCm/s400/Trough.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Finally, the forecast track has already been sliding ever so slightly right of the original offering, and the latest dynamical models are even more right than the consensus. This is good because the consensus will be influenced by a preponderance of the dynamical models to one side of the existing forecast tracks. In this case to the right or east of the current tracks. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFECHLyBTmXugbnhoQ7K3uhFbP9YKjmIOvHKsk3lj3VG02iM5IEsJGVVgUiG3KRU0qD-cORCfrmENUQAyXJp1XhbrxMgD_wxxuxcx3h6u4uMmZAopd9OBoSDj-C0n6XlDG1v9GGn_-PHqT/s1600/Issac_8.22.2012_2am.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFECHLyBTmXugbnhoQ7K3uhFbP9YKjmIOvHKsk3lj3VG02iM5IEsJGVVgUiG3KRU0qD-cORCfrmENUQAyXJp1XhbrxMgD_wxxuxcx3h6u4uMmZAopd9OBoSDj-C0n6XlDG1v9GGn_-PHqT/s400/Issac_8.22.2012_2am.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> Without the satellite enhancements...</span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZ2HFYwHU7JbPGilUTPbdBB6BaEG8E7l7FM78E7pDA7wgl-5o4ilfJqUslc_bFFsziAcbcUcRKutCtKNYIFQVeW2FmOz-OKuw5jH_Rw0JDlWx1lkI1ydcPwYyyJy1hJ6Mamv77vgZzVsSK/s1600/tracks_2am_8.22.2012.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZ2HFYwHU7JbPGilUTPbdBB6BaEG8E7l7FM78E7pDA7wgl-5o4ilfJqUslc_bFFsziAcbcUcRKutCtKNYIFQVeW2FmOz-OKuw5jH_Rw0JDlWx1lkI1ydcPwYyyJy1hJ6Mamv77vgZzVsSK/s400/tracks_2am_8.22.2012.gif" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Image thanks to CMISS...</span> <a class="style2a" href="http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/" style="color: red; font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: start; text-decoration: none;">Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies</a><br style="color: #00005f; font-size: medium; text-align: start;" /><a class="style2a" href="http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/" style="color: black; font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: start; text-decoration: none;">Space Science and Engineering Center</a><span style="background-color: #b0cbe8; color: #00005f; font-size: small; text-align: start;"> / </span><a class="style2a" href="http://www.wisc.edu/" style="color: black; font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: start; text-decoration: none;">University of Wisconsin-Madison</a>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The dashed lines are the dynamical plots, solid are the consensus.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">So I think there will be some changes in the track over the next 24 hours. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As for the intensity for those that know a little about weather, a -33 C dew point depression at 500 mb, with a -7 C dew point depression from POES sounding data, in the environment to the east of the system would make that a difficult environment for tropical development. This was data from Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellite program at 09Z yesterday morning. From the water vapor imagery seen above it looks like there may be even more dry air ahead of the storm. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">So we are in a wait and see situation. The models have been in pretty good agreement but there may be some changes not to the agreement, but to the tracks in all the model output. I will update again tonight. Until then keep a watch to your local <a href="http://www.weather.gov/" target="_blank">National Weather Service Office</a>, and the <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/" target="_blank">National Hurricane Center</a>, for official updates on watches and warnings as Issac continues to churn toward the Leeward Islands.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Cheers,</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">BC</span>Bills Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14957477832288295946noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8982719695170324675.post-85024067299890075662012-08-21T02:27:00.000-07:002012-08-21T02:27:06.216-07:00Possible evolution of 94-L <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Good morning all,</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">94-L in the Atlantic is taking shape as the potential Tropical Storm Issac. The latest model runs are aligning very well on track with some spread in intensity forecast. However...this is all contingent on the storm developing ad conditions coming together. As of 5:00 am NHC issued the first advisory on TD-9 as the system has become better organized overnight. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">From the National Hurricane Center...www.nhc.noaa.gov</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.2 WEST. THE</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H...AND</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS WEDNESDAY</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">AFTERNOON...AND EMERGE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BY THURSDAY</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">MORNING.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The system is moving quickly to the west and will update later today with more information now that the storm has been initialized for the models. It may be possible that if the TUTT (Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough near the western Bahamas may provide some added shear which may be a qualifier to limit intensification of the system but it is looking fairly healthy, especially for a developing storm. Expect that we will see tropical storm Issac this afternoon or evening. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Keep tuned for updates and if you live along the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, or East Coast of Florida, its time to check that your hurricane preparedness kit is up to date! NOW PEOPLE! :-)</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Check in with your local <a href="http://www.weather.gov/" target="_blank">National Weather Service</a> Office and the <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/" target="_blank">National Hurricane Center</a>, and Bill's Weather Blog for continuing updates on the evolution of TD-9 (Issac).</span><br />
Bills Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14957477832288295946noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8982719695170324675.post-18612388926772940762012-06-29T06:06:00.000-07:002012-06-29T07:32:52.709-07:00Penny is in the waterPenny Palfrey has started her trek for the Keys from Cuba. You may follow her progress using the <a href="http://share.findmespot.com/shared/faces/viewspots.jsp?glId=0cAjquq6FOarjFHTO97xpp2abd0R729uN">Penny Palfrey spottracker</a>. She's been in the water a little over an hour and is on a bee line north.<br />
The latest ASCAT satellite image was in a perfect location for a swath across the Florida Straits this morning, winds observed by the satellite pass were 10 knots or less and variable across the entire passage.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizA0Y_hrETfGp4CCEum7Kkjooq_tQX_zWVhOYHpzjLTLy0cUyjFLZorUDFjLjiXKAZB28hWfc3smdLApZWfBq-Hfcn8t0-Th630bWtLfxvrt7eHcRt6DcSngLQxRjgzb1FJfRUd8UE5BE1/s1600/ASCAT_floridastraits_6.29.12.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="340" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizA0Y_hrETfGp4CCEum7Kkjooq_tQX_zWVhOYHpzjLTLy0cUyjFLZorUDFjLjiXKAZB28hWfc3smdLApZWfBq-Hfcn8t0-Th630bWtLfxvrt7eHcRt6DcSngLQxRjgzb1FJfRUd8UE5BE1/s400/ASCAT_floridastraits_6.29.12.png" width="400" /></a></div>
The ASCAT observations are supported bu C-Man stations at Sand Key Light (SANF1)<br />
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and from Sombrero Key Light (SMKF1)<br />
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From National Weather Service WFO Key West Radar (KBYX) and GOES East satellite IR and Visible imagery, we see the only returns this morning from a cloud line along the lower Keys this morning on my SimuAWIPS display.<br />
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Conditions are nearly perfect for the swim and I can't wait to congratulate the entire team when they make landfall in the Keys. Go getem' Penny!Bills Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14957477832288295946noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8982719695170324675.post-34797049828027989062012-06-27T16:42:00.000-07:002012-06-27T16:42:04.424-07:00No more Debby...concentrating on swim weatherThe last official statement on TC Debby was issued at issued at 5 pm EDT. So long, farewell.<br />
This issue of the blog will concentrate on the winds and seas across the Florida Straits for Penny Palfrey swim from Cuba to the Keys. The following links are from the GFS and WaveWatch guidance respectively.<br />
<a href="http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=06%2F27%2F2012+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=10m_wnd_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=WNATL&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=Western+North+Atlantic+-+Southeast+US+Central+America+Caribbean&prevArea=WNATL&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M">10 meter winds, MSLP, and 6 hour precipitation from the GFS guidance</a><br />
<a href="http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=06%2F27%2F2012+18UTC&rname=OCEAN+PARMS&pname=regional_wv_ht&pdesc=&model=WW3-WNA&area=WNATL&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=Western+North+Atlantic+-+Southeast+US+Central+America+Caribbean&prevArea=WNATL&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=L">WaveWatch significant wave heights and wind guidance</a>
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The Gulf Stream has spread and engulfs most of the straits as seen from the NDDDC Gulf of Mexico Ecoviewer, the wide view then the zoom in.<br />
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I spoke with Captains Bob and John this morning about the Thursday start. I have seen satellite altimetry that shows at least 8 to 10 foot seas being refracted around the western tip of Cuba which experience shows would produce a residual swell across at least the western Straits. My thoughts would be to aim for Friday morning as the southerly fetch will allow seas to lay down very quickly. The wind and wave forecast looks great through Monday and is best Saturday and Sunday. A tropical wave is being advertised in the central Atlantic about 1600 miles east of the Windward Islands and doesn't show up in the Caribbean for 6 days.<br />
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Tides are important for the swim obviously and the Havana tide table for the 28th, and Key West tide tables and 28th and 29th.<br />
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I wish I could produce better conditions for the swim but this is just about as good as it gets on the Florida Straits. I look forward to greeting you Keys side!<br />
Cheers,<br />
BCBills Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14957477832288295946noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8982719695170324675.post-10357360118152128902012-06-26T16:44:00.002-07:002012-06-26T16:44:31.304-07:00Debby makes landfallAnd the crowd goes wild!<br />
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Debby is forecast to cross the Florida Peninsula tonight and early Wednesday before moving north of the Bahamas Wednesday night and Thursday. The wind field will relax gradually for the Florida West Coast Wednesday and then the East Coast Wednesday night and Thursday. Expect that the Tropical Storm Warnings will be dropped very soon. It will take some time for the flood waters to recede on the Sopchoppy, Suwannee, and St. Mary's (Major flood stage) Rivers in North Florida, and the the Anclote (in Major Flood Stage), Alafia, and Manatee Rivers in Central Florida around Tampa Bay. All but the St. Mary's are expected to drop below flood stages by Saturday.<br />
<a href="http://water.weather.gov/ahps/region.php?rfc=serfc">Southeast River Forecast Center</a>
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Have to give kudos to the <a href="http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=06%2F26%2F2012+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=10m_wnd_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=WNATL&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=Western+North+Atlantic+-+Southeast+US+Central+America+Caribbean&prevArea=WNATL&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M">GFS Model Guidance</a> forecast model in that it ended up as the most reliable model for the past week and for Debby. Albeit maybe for the wrong reasons at times but the solution was very good. For this reason I am going with the current forecast for the winds for the next 5 days and the Penny Palfrey Cuba to the Keys swim. <a href="https://www.facebook.com/pages/Penny-Palfrey/243127792390792" style="color: #1155cc; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" target="_blank">Penny-Palfrey Swim on Facebook</a><br />
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The <a href="http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=06%2F26%2F2012+18UTC&rname=OCEAN+PARMS&pname=regional_wv_ht&pdesc=&model=WW3-WNA&area=WNATL&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=Western+North+Atlantic+-+Southeast+US+Central+America+Caribbean&prevArea=WNATL&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M">Winds and Seas forecast</a> looks good for Friday and gets better for the duration of the crossing. As does the Gulf Stream. <br />
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Go make a successful swim Penny, Chris, Captains Bob, John, and Chris. See you onshore in the Keys!<br />Bills Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14957477832288295946noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8982719695170324675.post-14722973604589121312012-06-25T09:24:00.006-07:002012-06-25T09:26:00.058-07:00Debby sits and spins, and Cuba to Key West swim<br />
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Debby is nearly stationary sitting just south of Apalachicola FL. Mention of the Penny </div>
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Palfrey swim after discussion of Debby. <br />
The uncertainty in the forecast track is the only thing that remains unchanged. <br />
This is always the problem in slow moving, weak systems. The cyclone is stuck in a </div>
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col region between two large scale anti-cyclones, one over the Tropical Atlantic, and </div>
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the other over the Southern Plains in weak steering flow.<br />
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The vorticity is stacked very nicely over the center of the storm with a robust ridge </div>
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above 300 mb which is favorable for tropical system life cycles. The problem is that </div>
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a mid level vort west of the storm last night and provided enough shear, with the trough </div>
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to the north to move the deep convection east out over the Atlantic last night. Still Debby </div>
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lies in an area of the Gulf of Mexico outside the warm waters of the loop current but the </div>
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current is nearby.<br />
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Ecosystem viewer courtesy of NOAA Coastal Data Development Center </td></tr>
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The interesting item of the forecast today is that the GFS and the ECMWF have come into agreement with the EC now moving the storm over the western Atlantic. The images <br />
below are the 96 hour forecast for the ECMWF and GFS respectively from the <br />
Experimental forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields courtesy of <br />
Dr. Robert Hart Florida State University.<br />
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The obvious differences being the intensity in which the genesis model does not perform <br />well. The intensity i sup for grabs and depends on the eventual steering, progression, and <br />whether Debby taps into the Gulf Stream loop current to strengthen again. The only <br />certainty with the storm at this point is persistence in the slow movement for the next <br />several days. Debby may move across Florida and over the Atlantic by 96 hours, or just <br />drift across the Florida Panhandle and weaken. It is a waiting game. The official authority for hurricane forecasts, watches and warnings is the National <br />Weather Service, National Hurricane Center, and your local National Weather Service <br />Weather Forecast Office. <br /><a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/">http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/</a> <br /><a href="http://www.weather.gov/">http://www.weather.gov/</a><br />
The bad news for Debby is as bad or worse for the Cuba to the Keys swim. Looks like <br />
winds will remain near 20 knots through Wednesday and begin to shift SW and decrease <br />
Wednesday night, which may hold the crossing for Sunluver until Wednesday afternoon. <br />
<a href="http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=06%2F25%2F2012+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=10m_wnd_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=WNATL&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=Western+North+Atlantic+-+Southeast+US+Central+America+Caribbean&prevArea=WNATL&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M">10 meter winds, MSLP, and precipitation</a> <br />
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The winds and seas diminish Thursday night and Friday but the earliest start for the swim <br />
looks like Friday morning due to near 20 knots early Thursday, with seas finally dropping <br />
below 3 to 5 feet late Thursday.<br />
<a href="http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=06%2F25%2F2012+06UTC&rname=OCEAN+PARMS&pname=regional_wv_ht&pdesc=&model=WW3-WNA&area=WNATL&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=Western+North+Atlantic+-+Southeast+US+Central+America+Caribbean&prevArea=WNATL&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=L">Wave hghts in meters, and wind flags in knots</a> <br />
We wait and hope.<br />
BC</div>
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<br /></div>Bills Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14957477832288295946noreply@blogger.com0