Friday, October 12, 2012

Patty and Invest 98L

Good morning everyone,

Just a few notes of the tropics with the last gasp from Patty, and a open wave that may be named Rafael. Patty is being absorbed by a trough sitting across the Bahamas and will likely be out of the picture this evening. The structure of Patty is already non tropical with very little indication of a closed circulation at the surface. 
Thanks to CIMSS for image
With this said lets focus on Invest 98L. 98L is indicated on the above image by the I over the Windward Islands. A recent OSACT pass has a very good representation of the environment around the area. 
 This circulation has a couple of problems least of which is the interaction with the northern coast of Venezuela that is inhibiting the circulation on the southern semicircle of the system. The only storms in recent history that I can remember surviving this interaction were Dennis and Emily in 2005.  The shear across the area north and west of 98L is extremely hostile for development but there is ample deep convection over the Windwards near Barbados that warrent at least keeping an eye on the area. Forecast models are consistently developing a hurricane but the track is almost due north. The other problem is that the ridge over the southeast will offer plenty shear to the west which is the likely reason for the track north. The only issue for this system which may be named Rafael, is Bermuda. 
The following images show the shear then the shear tendency over the area. 
The season isn't over yet. 

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