94-L in the Atlantic is taking shape as the potential Tropical Storm Issac. The latest model runs are aligning very well on track with some spread in intensity forecast. However...this is all contingent on the storm developing ad conditions coming together. As of 5:00 am NHC issued the first advisory on TD-9 as the system has become better organized overnight.
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINEWAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.2 WEST. THEDEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H...ANDTHIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OFDAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THESOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS WEDNESDAYAFTERNOON...AND EMERGE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BY THURSDAYMORNING.
The system is moving quickly to the west and will update later today with more information now that the storm has been initialized for the models. It may be possible that if the TUTT (Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough near the western Bahamas may provide some added shear which may be a qualifier to limit intensification of the system but it is looking fairly healthy, especially for a developing storm. Expect that we will see tropical storm Issac this afternoon or evening.
Keep tuned for updates and if you live along the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, or East Coast of Florida, its time to check that your hurricane preparedness kit is up to date! NOW PEOPLE! :-)
Check in with your local National Weather Service Office and the National Hurricane Center, and Bill's Weather Blog for continuing updates on the evolution of TD-9 (Issac).