Issac

Good morning all,

Sorry I didn't update this afternoon. Working a lot of overtime due to the staffing issues here so have had limited time outside work to produce my discussion. 

Issac has become better organized over the past 24 hours at least with the convection near the center. The outflow channels are still not well formed, and the environment around the storm is becoming extremely hostile for further development. The TUTT (Tropical Upper Tropopheric Trough) mentioned in last nights discussion is still lurking over eastern Cuba and the Windward Passage. 

Image thanks to CMISS... Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
Space Science and Engineering Center  /  University of Wisconsin-Madison

The TUTT is the likely culprit for the added nearly 40 knots of shear in the environment to the east of the storm. 

Image thanks to CMISS... Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
Space Science and Engineering Center  /  University of Wisconsin-Madison

The trough that passed across central Florida Tuesday is hanging around and  appears to have a reinforcing push heading southeast across the northern Gulf of Mexico which may be very good for moving the forecast track of the storm more to the east.

Finally, the forecast track has already been sliding ever so slightly right of the original offering, and the latest dynamical models are even more right than the consensus. This is good because the consensus will be influenced by a preponderance of the dynamical models to one side of the existing forecast tracks. In this case to the right or east of the current tracks. 

 Without the satellite enhancements...

Image thanks to CMISS... Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
Space Science and Engineering Center  /  University of Wisconsin-Madison

The dashed lines are the dynamical plots, solid are the consensus.
So I think there will  be some changes in the track over the next 24 hours. 
As for the intensity for those that know a little about weather, a -33 C dew point depression at 500 mb, with a -7 C dew point depression from POES sounding data, in the environment to the east of the system would make that a difficult environment for tropical development. This was data from Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellite program at 09Z yesterday morning. From the water vapor imagery seen above it looks like there may be even more dry air ahead of the storm. 

So we are in a wait and see situation. The models have been in pretty good agreement but there may be some changes not to the agreement, but to the tracks in all the model output. I will update again tonight. Until then keep a watch to your local National Weather Service Office, and the National Hurricane Center, for official updates on watches and warnings as Issac continues to churn toward the Leeward Islands.
Cheers,
BC