Tuesday, June 19, 2012

Weather for the Penny Palfrey swim:

Good day all,
The current state of the the ocean atmosphere interaction has east winds near 20 knots which
crosses the Straits of Florida on the long axis. The expectation is that this will build seas and swell.

The good news is that winds will turn southerly Wednesday the 20th. The bad news is that although
winds relax a bit on the 22nd, the forecast is for a weak tropical / pseudo tropical low will is
forecast to cross the northeastern Gulf of Mexico during the afternoon of the 22nd. Winds will 
increase again for the weekend to 15 to 20 knots. This will also increase seas and swell mainly 
over the western Straits from the Seven Mile Bridge westward on the 23rd...then spread 
across the entire Keys Coastal waters on the 24th. The link below is provided to loop the forecast
10 meter winds and precipitation over the Straits:
10 meter winds and precipitation forecast

The next link is the Wave Watch guidance for peak wave height, direction, and periodicity:
Wave Watch guidance...height, direction, and periodicity

There is a final note concerning the confidence in the model output. The short term tonight through
the 22nd is very good, with decent agreement through the weekend. For the 24th through the 27th
the agreement differs and we could see a much weaker system in the western Gulf which would
produce a weaker pressure gradient across the Keys area, resulting in relaxed winds and reduced
seas. We still need another day or day and a half to get a better picture.

The Tropical Weather Outlook is good in that the likelihood that we actually have a tropical system
develop is extremely low. See graphic:

My advice is to go into a short holding pattern for the next several days, which we would have to due to the winds currently hovering around 20 knots. In any case winds will go southerly for a long duration starting Wednesday afternoon, which is the reason for the wide spread rainfall across the area. I should mention
that the vertical profile with respect to moisture is expected to remain saturated with nearly 140 percent of normal...okay...lots of rain. :-)

Call me if you have questions,

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