Tropical development in the Gulf?

Conditions are becoming much more favorable for an area of low pressure to develop over the Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. Expect that this development will come from the continuing mesoscale convective system near the Yucatan and western Cuba. Current satellite shows the convective environment over the Yucatan Channel which is invest 96L...

The environment near and around this area is moderately favorable but conditions are becoming more conducive for development. The main factor for the lack of organization at this point is the higher vorticity north of the Yucatan.

850, 700, and 500 mb vorticity. Image from CIMSS
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
Space Science and Engineering Center  /  University of Wisconsin-Madison 

The shear over this area is just enough to enhance to potential and the shear tendency is almost ideal vertical development.

Current shear and shear tendency. Image from CIMSS
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
Space Science and Engineering Center  /  University of Wisconsin-Madison  

The model forecast are very similar through the initial phase of evolution. Then there is some dichotomy in track with the ECMWF keeping a storm in the Gulf then sliding it slowly westward, while the GFS pulls a much weaker system across the Florida Peninsula then intensifying off the Florida / Georgia coast, by Monday. Will wait for a few good runs to offer much more on the forecast of the system. For the models to perform well there needs to be an actual circulation to place into the runs instead of an artificial vortex. 
Anyone along the Gulf Coast states that has not prepared their hurricane kits should do so now!
The official authority for hurricane forecasts, watches and warnings is the National Weather Service, National Hurricane Center, and your local National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 
http://www.weather.gov/